Thanksgiving could cause Pennsylvania's COVID-19 hospital numbers to soar to new highs

Thanksgiving could return Pennsylvania's COVID-19 hospital numbers to severe summer levels, local health experts warn.

Hospitalizations for COVID-19 in Pennsylvania remain below levels the state saw during the summer peak, but the trends are heading in the wrong direction and medical officials are prepared for the worst.

And the worst, some worry, could come after families and friends gather against medical advice for Thanksgiving feasts, which could further fuel the ongoing rise in virus infections, especially among more vulnerable older Pennsylvanians.

Cases numbers are up and the reproduction rate of the virus in the commonwealth on Wednesday was at 11/1% on a scale that says anything more than 1.0 means COVID-19 will spread quickly.

The state also reported an additional 6,759 new confirmed cases Wednesday, for a statewide total of 327,829 cases since the pandemic took storm in the commonwealth in March, and forecasters are projecting 22,000 news cases a day in the commonwealth come December.

More:10,000 deaths: Pennsylvania reaches grim COVID-19 milestone

More than 10,000 Pennsylvania residents have died from the coronavirus, according to the state count of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths, marking yet another grim milestone. And most recent counts, show that and 3,897 Pennsylvania patients are hospitalized and 826 patients are in the intensive care unit. 

The pandemic has had its largest impact on older residents, with 6,430 of the deaths in the state coming from people living in long-term care facilities. The average age of residents who have died from the virus is 81. 

What's been helping to keep hospitalizations below Pennsylvania's COVID-19 summer peak so far is the fact that people ages 20 to 44 have accounted for nearly half of new cases. That's an age group less likely to have underlying health conditions and also less likely to be hospitalized for complications of getting infected.

But that younger demographic could end up passing the virus onto more vulnerable populations, particularly as families get together over the holidays.

Thanksgiving brings together all the factors that the coronavirus loves, Health Secretary Rachel Levine said — people coming together, often congregating for hours, sometimes traveling and staying in relatives' and friends' homes, and taking off their masks to eat.

How we handle the holiday season will define the coming months, warned Donald Yealy, chairman of UPMC’s Department of Emergency Medicine, and Bushman, co-director of the Penn Center for Research on Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Pathogens.

"We understand fatigue. But we caution everyone: Stay vigilant," Yealy said. "The virus doesn’t care about our fatigue."

Small gatherings appear to be driving the spread of coronavirus in Pennsylvania right now, said Dr. Frederic Bushman, co-director of the Penn Center for Research on Coronaviruses and Other Emerging Pathogens.Bushman and other health experts said.

"It's not the people you live with every day and you guys are deciding to go out to dinner, or have a backyard picnic," Bushman said. "It's when you invite your cousins or your aunt and uncle that you haven't seen in awhile."

That puts Thanksgiving "right square into a very potentially difficult holiday for the spread of COVID," Bushman said, and also goes against how many people traditionally celebrate at Thanksgiving.

"For me it kind of becomes reminiscent of Memorial Day weekend and what happened in the aftermath of that," Bushman said. "How we handle the holidays will be crucial."

Also of interest: