Election Q&A: Can people find out who I voted for? If not, then how does polling work?

This story is part of a Lansing State Journal Q&A series about the upcoming election. Have a question about voting, polling or results? Ask it in the form at the bottom of this story. We'll get you the answer.

Q: I'm concerned about privacy. What personal information becomes public when I register to vote? Can people find out who I voted for? If not, how can pollsters say what percentage of men or women or white or Black voters support a certain candidate?

Great questions call for detailed answers. But first, the basics.

The fact that someone is registered to vote (or not) is public. The fact that someone voted in certain elections is public. Who a person voted for is not. 

Want to know more? Let's dive in.

What pieces of my voter registration are public?

The state keeps voter registration information on a list called the Qualified Voter File.

The file includes information such as who is registered to vote, where they live and what elections they have participated in. It does not have any information about which candidates voters support or whether they are members of a political party. 

Clerks and election workers use the file to verify voter registrations and make sure people cast ballots in the right jurisdictions.

Votes, however, are secret.

Take a look at a sample ballot available at the Michigan Voter Information Center — there is no space for a voter's name, address, signature or any other information that could tie that ballot to a specific voter.

Election Q&A:What if my absentee ballot return envelope signature doesn't match the file?

Instead, election officials take steps to verify a person's identity before issuing a ballot at a polling place on Election Day or before removing a ballot from its secrecy sleeve when counting absentee votes.

"The only information that we're able to provide, from a data perspective, is age and gender breakdown," Secretary of State spokesperson Tracy Wimmer said. "Even then, it's only for things like voter registration or if someone voted, period. There's no way to see how they voted."

The Secretary of State does not publish the Qualified Voter File — which, again, does not say who you voted for — but parts of it are technically public.

People can get some information from the file through a Freedom of Information Act request, Wimmer said. The more personal information is redacted and not released.

Voter information that can be released:

• Name
• Birth year
• Address
• Polling place
• Voting history

Voter information that can not be released: 

• Birth month, birthday
• Driver's license number
• Social Security number
• Phone number
• Email address

People who work on political campaigns and for nonpartisan voting advocacy groups file the most FOIA requests for Qualified Voter File information, Wimmer said. 

Political vendors sometimes create beefed-up versions of the voter registration list by adding other publicly or privately available information (like political party memberships or magazine subscriptions), then selling their more detailed information to politicians or groups, said Matt Grossmann, director of the Institute for Public Policy and Social Research at Michigan State University. 

Then, those groups can use the information to contact potential voters or to predict winners and losers in upcoming elections.

Which brings us to polling.

If my vote is secret, how do pollsters know how age, gender or racial groups are going to vote? 

Media outlets, market research groups and campaigns survey people about their opinions on candidates and policies to predict the outcomes of elections, Grossmann said.

They usually do it by contacting enough people to constitute a representative sample of a group, asking those people questions about themselves, their opinions and their voting plans, then turning those questions into a prediction.

Pollsters might use the Qualified Voter File to find people to contact for their surveys. They might call random numbers and ask to survey the people who answer. They also might call people and ask them to take online surveys.

You won't be surprised to learn you're participating in a poll, Grossmann said. It should be obvious if someone is asking you who you support in an upcoming election.

Groups could use information on the Qualified Voter File to predict election outcomes without doing additional surveys, but the resulting predictions aren't likely to be as solid as predictions from full-blown polls, he said.

For example, a group might assume a voter who lives in a majority Black community and voted in a 2020 presidential primary election will support Democrats, but it's possible that voter is an outlier among his or her neighbors.

They might also assume someone whose voter registration address matches the address of a subscriber to American Rifleman is likely to support Republicans. Again, that assumption could be wrong. 

Submit your questions to the Lansing State Journal's Election Q&A series. We'll post questions and answers online at LSJ.com.