Ventura County's coronavirus rates, hospitalizations surged in June and July. Here's why

Ventura County reported 837 coronavirus cases on May 19, the day its public health officer signed a request to speed up reopening.

Hospitals had 27 COVID-positive patients at the time and 28 people from the county had died.

Every number has spiked since then.

The county wrapped up July with 7,344 positive cases – a more than 700% increase from 2½ months earlier – and 77 people with COVID-19 have died.

After hitting a record high of 101 hospitalizations in mid-July, numbers leveled off in the 80s near the end of the month. That's still close to four times more patients than in May. 

While signs point to the surge slowing, the county and the state have hit a much higher plateau and that raises new concerns.

"We have a shorter leash before we fall off the edge of a cliff," said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, professor of medicine and infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.

In COVID-19 terms, falling off a cliff means overtaxing the health care system – running out of ICU beds and not having enough nurses and doctors to care for the sick. When that happens, more people can die. 

"We have less wiggle room," Chin-Hong said.

Fourfold increase in COVID hospitalizations

On May 20, Ventura got the OK from the state to advance to the accelerated stage of reopening.

It joined other counties able to decide to reopen dine-in restaurants and some other businesses with modifications. Dr. Robert Levin, the county's public health officer, modified the county's health order that night.

Gov. Gavin Newsom relaxed restrictions in those counties that said they could meet certain requirements on testing and tracing, hospitalization rates and overall cases of the virus. Soon after, hair salons and barbershops also got the OK in most counties.

Within weeks, Ventura County and nearly a dozen others landed on a state watch list as its number of COVID-positive patients in hospitals surged.

Levin said recently that he watches hospitalizations most closely. Other statistics such as positive cases may go up when testing expands. But anyone sick enough will be admitted to a hospital whether or not they test positive for COVID-19.

"That number does not depend on the amount of testing," he said.

Hospitalizations soared in June and July, causing one local hospital to open a special surge floor when its intensive care unit filled.

In an attempt to slow the surge happening throughout California, Newsom last month pulled back on earlier openings, shutting down indoor activities in Ventura County and dozens of other areas for hair salons, barbershops, gyms, nail salons, tattoo shops and other sectors.

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What caused the surge?

Locally, outbreaks at nursing homes in Ventura and a farmworker housing complex in Oxnard may have contributed to the surge. But Levin also has said the reopening inspired people to make a return of sorts to their pre-pandemic lives, leading to more transmission.

The state approving business sectors and activities to reopen along the way also may have caused counties to be forced to open earlier than would have been appropriate to best manage the COVID-19 numbers, he said.

"Once the state said publicly, it’s all right for your county to open, then the pressures in each county became almost irresistible," he said.

“As the public became more and more anxious to get out of their houses and start socializing," he said, "that is when I knew that we would be seeing a surge.”

More and more people in Ventura County have sought tests in the past couple months as the county has expanded its sites and relaxed the rules on who could be tested.

In May, the county said it would have to test roughly 1,280 people per day to meet the volume required by the state. It was averaging 314 tests daily over a two-week period at the time. Its highest volume of tests on any given day was 679.

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Headed in right direction

The highest daily total in July was 2,817, far above the goal.

Meanwhile, case and test positivity rates – also monitored by the state – climbed. 

Earlier this week, the county reported a 14-day case rate of 159 positive cases per 100,000 residents, far exceeding the state threshold. In May, it had fewer than 17 positive cases per 100,000 residents. 

Test positivity rate – 3.5% in May – also exceeded the state threshold earlier this week at 8%, showing more COVID-19 is circulating in the community. Problems with the state's reporting system led to some gaps in numbers of the last few days. 

Recently, signs pointed to a slowing surge in California.

New cases may be slowing statewide and hospitalizations and ICU admissions also had dropped "modestly," Newsom said Monday.

"We'll need to see another few weeks of this kind of data to come in to feel more confident about where we are as a state," he said, during a new briefing.

The governor's latest restrictions appear to be lowering rates, Chin-Hong said. But it will take some time to land from the recent spike.

"People should be happy that we're headed in the right direction as a state," he said. "But it's not a time to relax unfortunately."

Cheri Carlson covers the environment for the Ventura County Star. Reach her at cheri.carlson@vcstar.com or 805-437-0260.