Carlsbad's recent rainfall offers little respite from extreme drought

Although Carlsbad saw some recent heavy but brief rainfalls after a drought-stricken and blistering hot spring and summer, climate experts cautioned the region is still not out of perilous weather that defined 2020 so far in southeast New Mexico.

In early July, temperatures soared above 100 degrees for multiple weeks, and area vegetation struggled after six months without any significant rainfall.

By Friday, just about 2.5 inches of rainfall was reported at the Cavern City Air Terminal, which usually averages more than 7 inches by this part of the year, said State Climatologist David DuBois.

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He said that a ridge of high air pressure moved moisture away from New Mexico, settling over Texas.

Combined with temperatures significantly higher than average, DuBois said, the weather pattern caused more moisture loss due to evaporation.

“We’ve had a lot of high temperatures which have degraded vegetation due to evaporative loss,” he said. “This summer, we’ve had a delayed monsoon. We’re seeing a high pressure ridge that we don’t want to see. It’s been moving moisture to other places.”

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The U.S. Drought Monitor – created through a partnership with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and University of Nebraska’s Drought Mitigation Center – showed drought in New Mexico had gotten much worse in the last year.

As of Thursday, the Drought Monitor showed 13.8 percent of New Mexico experience “extreme” drought conditions, while last year at the same time the state had no areas under the same classification.

The extreme drought conditions covered most of Eddy County, stretching from its northern border with Chaves County to Eddy’s southern border with Texas.

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The far eastern corner of Eddy County was listed as “severe drought” and small corner on the southwest side of the state was at moderate drought.

Extreme drought was also found in northern Lea County and southern Chaves County.

Most of De Baca County was covered in extreme drought, per the monitor along with large portions in northern New Mexico counties San Juan, Rio Arriba, Taos, Colfax and Union.

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New Mexico was also at 45 percent severe drought, spread across the western, northern and southwestern regions of the state.

One year ago, records show, the state was at zero percent severe drought.

In July 2019, the drought monitor reported the state had 69 percent of non-drought conditions.

DuBois said New Mexico often fluctuates in its drought levels as moisture moves in and out of the region.

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But for now, New Mexicans, especially in the southeast, are struggling in year with below average moisture, he said, although recent thunderstorms and rainfall could mean some optimism for the coming months.

“There’s extreme drought throughout the Pecos Valley. Things are not really improving,” DuBois said. “The thunderstorms are there in spots. Looking at the two-week forecast there is some promise.”

Rainfall would not only have the immediate impact of improving parched vegetation, DuBois said, but provide moisture for the soil moving into winter which is often New Mexico’s driest season.

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He said many ranchers in southeast New Mexico are already struggling due to the low rainfall this year and could be even more imperiled if things don’t improve by the end of the year.

“Some ranchers have gotten some good rain, but the main conditions are still struggling,” DuBois said. “If they didn’t get rain last summer or during the spring, they missed out.”

Looking ahead, DuBois said weather indications do indicate the possibility for tropical storm systems moving into the region in September.

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This could be the region’s last chance for some significant rain, he said, before the area dries up for winter.

“We’re hoping we can get some these (tropical storm patterns), but that’s already after the season,” DuBois said. “We need soil moisture for winter.”

And in the meantime, Douglas Cain, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service’s Midland Odessa Office said Carlsbad and southeast New Mexico’s short sporadic rainfalls would have to increase in quantity and length if the region was to recover from drought.

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“We’ve had some low chances of rain over Eddy County,” he said. “The air goes up into the mountains, it cools down and brings rain.”

The monsoon would likely take full effect in August and September, if at all, Cain said, as it mostly impacts Arizona and parts of western New Mexico.

Southeast New Mexico is kind of on the edge of it. There does seem to be a good chance of rain tat this time if conditions allow,” he said. “But right now, we’re talking about 10 minutes if anything. You need more time to get a decent rain.

“At this point, it’s not looking very wet.”

Cain said New Mexico is traditionally dry for two main factors: it is far from any large body of water and experiencing high heat which quickly evaporates any moisture the state does receive.

“It just depends on the amount of rain,” he said. “When it rains, things turn green and drought goes away. If we don’t get any rain, things will stay the same.”

Adrian Hedden can be reached at 575-628-5516, achedden@currentargus.com or @AdrianHedden on Twitter.