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U.S. corn, soybean, wheat ending stocks up on month

The USDA has raised domestic ending stocks projections for corn, soybeans, and wheat. Corn ending stocks were up 200 million bushels on the month at nearly 2.1 billion with the USDA slashing the ethanol use estimate as blending demand drops because of coronavirus related stay at home and social distancing regulations, more than cancelling out a higher feed and residual use guess. The soybean supply is seen at 480 million bushels, an increase of 55 million from March because of a lower export use projection due to heavy competition from Brazil and slower demand from China. The USDA also reduced its’ soybean oil for biodiesel use estimate. U.S. wheat ending stocks were up 30 million bushels at 970 million on lower expectations for feed and export demand.

Globally, the USDA raised corn and wheat ending stocks, but cut soybeans on lower production estimates for Argentina and Brazil following dry weather during critical development periods. The department did increase export projections for Brazil and imports by China.

The 2019/20 marketing year started June 1st for wheat, September 1st for corn and soybeans, and October 1st for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out May 12th.

Month to month changes for selected supply and demand tables:

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks are pegged at 970 million bushels, compared to 940 million in March and 1.080 billion for 2018/19. Feed and residual use was down 15 million bushels on the month at 135 million, putting domestic use at 1.115 billion bushels, and exports were also 15 million bushels lower at 985 million, leaving total use at 2.135 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.60 per bushel, compared to $4.55 a month ago and $5.16 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks came out at 2.092 billion bushels, compared to 1.892 billion last month and 2.221 billion last marketing year. The USDA reduced imports 5 million bushels to 45 million for a total supply of 15.957 billion bushels, while feed and residual use was upped 150 million bushels to 5.575 billion but ethanol use was slashed 375 million bushels to 5.05 billion, leaving domestic use at 12.14 billion bushels and total use at 13.865 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel, compared to $3.80 in March and $3.61 for 2018/19.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 480 million bushels, compared to 425 million a month ago and 909 million the previous marketing year. The USDA raised the crush guess 20 million bushels to 2.125 billion but cut exports 50 million bushels to 1.775 billion and also lowered the seed and residual use guesses, leaving total use at 4.002 billion bushels. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $8.65 per bushel, compared to $8.70 last month and $8.48 last marketing year. For soybean oil, the USDA raised production and exports but lowered imports and biodiesel, along with food, feed, & other industrial use, pushing ending stocks 315 million pounds higher to 1.830 billion. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $.30 per pound, compared to $.315 in March and $.2826 for 2018/19. For soybean meal, the USDA increased production, imports, and exports, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 375,000 short tons. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $305 per short ton, compared to $305 a month ago and $308.28 the previous marketing year.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are projected at 292.78 million tons, compared to 287.14 million last month. Production was down modestly on the month with a reduction for North Africa cancelling out a slight increase for Ukraine. Domestic feed use is estimated at 144.26 million tons, compared to 147.91 million in March, with exports of 182.71 million tons, compared to 183.62 million a month ago.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are seen at 303.17 million tons, compared to 297.34 million in March. Global production is expected to be 1.113 billion tons, up a million, on increased expectations for the European Union and Ukraine cancelling out a reduction in Southeast Asia. Domestic feed use is pegged at 709.28 million tons, compared to 705.8 million a month ago, with exports of 165.93 million tons, compared to 165.83 million last month.

2019/20 world soybean stocks are estimated at 100.45 million tons, compared to 102.44 million a month ago. World production is seen at 338.08 million tons, down more than 3 million, on reduced projections for Argentina and Brazil. Domestic crush use is expected to be 302.84 million tons, compared to 303.45 million last month, with exports of 151.5 million tons, compared to 151.88 million in March. The USDA raised exports for Brazil and imports for China.

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