Projections: Up to 600,000 South Dakotans could get coronavirus, will peak in mid-June

Up to 70% of South Dakotans could get the novel coronavirus, according to projections shared by Gov. Kristi Noem on Friday.

Noem and health experts from the state's major hospital systems on Friday shared projections on how the novel coronavirus will spread throughout the state. 

Previously, Noem had said she expected 30% of the state to become infected by the respiratory illness, but that number has expanded to include up to 70% of the state, or 600,000 people. That's taking into account those who get the virus but will show no symptoms or very minor symptoms. 

More beds, ventilators needed

The state's current projections for the effect of the coronavirus — which Noem cautioned are "dynamic" and "will change as the virus spreads," are that between 265,000 and 600,000 people will be infected with the virus.

That's a range of 30%-70% of the state's 882,235 citizens.

Those projections also show the peak of the virus' infections will be in mid-June, assuming we continue our current level of containment and social distancing.

At that time, the state believes they will need 5,000 hospital beds and 1,300 ventilators to properly assist coronavirus patients during that peak.

The state does not have those numbers of either beds or ventilators at the moment, Noem said, but plans are in place to get to that point in time. Health Secretary Kim Malsam-Rysdon said the state currently has 525 ventilators.

Noem would not give an estimate for the deaths projected to be caused in the state by the new coronavirus, saying that the number would depend on a number of factors. She also would not say how stricter measures like a shelter-in-place order might change projections on the number of deaths in the state. 

Malsam-Rysdon said their projections range from 0.5%-3% of total infections leading to death. At the low range of a 30% infection rate, that would mean between 1,325 and 7,950 deaths. At the upper range of 70%, between 3,000 and 18,000 deaths would be estimated.

New confirmed cases of COVID-19

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in South Dakota hit 187 Friday, and the state saw its third death from the disease. 

That's with an addition of 22 known cases, a number that doesn't include pending tests or those who are not being tested. The state lab and hospitals are focusing primarily on high-priority cases, meaning those with symptoms who do not fall into high-priority categories may not be tested. The data also does not include people who may have the virus but are asymptomatic. 

The person who died was a resident at the Avera Prince of Peace Retirement Community in Sioux Falls, Avera Health officials confirmed Friday afternoon.

In Minnehaha County, the number of confirmed cases rose from 54 to 68. Sioux Falls officials have prohibited certain businesses from having more than 10 patrons on their premises and closed local parks.

Map:Where is coronavirus in South Dakota? View data on ages, counties and gender.

The number of known cases that have recovered from the virus is now 69 statewide. 

In Beadle County, which once had the highest number of cases in the state as well as one of the state's two deaths, has held steady at 21 confirmed cases for two days, 17 of whom have recovered. Noem spoke during the press conference about the efforts of the community to contain the spread of the virus, calling it "a testimony to what a community can do."

Healthcare leaders endorse state's plan

Along with state epidemiologist Joshua Clayton, Noem was joined by Monument Health Chief Medical Officer Brad Archer, Avera Health Pediatrics and Internal Medicine Dr. David Basel and Sanford Health Chief Medical Officer Allison Suttle.

All of them said they supported the data and plans that were being shared at the press conference, with Basel saying "there are not very many states where this many major players could come together."

Coronavirus in South Dakota:Confirmed cases, latest news and updates

He added that "what we have to fight this virus is each and every resident," reiterating the need for South Dakotans to work to lower the spread.

Suttle echoed those remarks, saying that "now more than ever is the time to double down on staying at home."

Noem: 'Severe' measures would need to last until October

Noem also again addressed why she is not putting in place a stay-at-home or shelter-in-place order. She said the more measures taken now, the more it'll push out the time the measures are needed.

"If I put those measures in place (now), you need to be able to do that until October," Noem said, later adding that "if we put in severe mitigation actions, that will slow down the spread of the virus, but it means we have to sustain those actions for a longer period of time."

She added that she has to weigh if those measures are sustainable for South Dakotans and businesses, and to figure out how long they could be in place "before we don't have any businesses left."