Prepare for the worst to be our best (opinion)

“Already in York and the surrounding region, there are few beds in intensive-care units and they’re often occupied. If COVID-19 spreads quickly, as it did in Italy, researchers estimate the need for beds here will be 26 times greater than the existing capacity in ICUs — more than anywhere else in the nation.”

— Nathaniel Lash and Brett Sholtis, Demand for ICU beds will greatly outstrip availability if Coronavirus hits Pa. hard, Spotlight PA/WITF, Philadelphia Inquirer (March 20, 2020).

We’re number one.

As of now, the United States is number one in the world in the number of known COVID-19 infections.

Also, during this pandemic, York County is the number one county in the nation in need of intensive care unit (I.C.U.) beds. This is based on a multiplier effect of our current capacity and the percentage of our population over the age of 65.

Intensive care units are best equipped to handle the most serious COVID-19 cases.

York County has a population of about 442,000 residents; 17% are over the age of 65. Elderly patients have much higher hospitalization and fatality rates from the pandemic.

Based on a Harvard University Global Health Institute study, you can plug your town into the data field in the article, Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? published by ProPublica. Based on your entry, the article will show how many intensive care unit (I.C.U.) beds will be needed and the multiplier need in your area if moderate projections take place.

All 72 York County municipalities are part of the “York, Pennsylvania” analysis tally. Indeed, the U. S. Census Bureau defines the York Metropolitan Statistical Area as York County. And yes, Hanover, Glen Rock, and Shrewsbury friends, your towns are part of the “York” analysis.

Analyzing a middle-of-the-road pandemic scenario here, the ProPublica article (March 17, 2020) states: “It is estimated that about 8% of the adult population would require hospital care. In a moderate scenario where 40% of the population is infected over a 12-month period, hospitals in York, PA would receive an estimated 28,900 coronavirus patients. The influx of patients would require 960 beds over 12 months, which is 3.6 times the available beds in that time period. The Harvard researchers' scenarios assume that each coronavirus patient will require 12 days of hospital care on average...”

The ProPublica piece continues: “In the York, PA region, intensive care units would be especially overwhelmed and require additional capacity. Without coronavirus patients, there are only 8 available beds on average in intensive care units, which is 26 times less than what is needed to care for all severe cases.”

All of us in York County, Pennsylvania and beyond are connected in this challenge to maintain physical distance, to be together separately. We are united in exercising responsibility, decency, prudence and forbearance.

Published by the Philadelphia Inquirer, a Spotlight PA/WITF article (March 20, 2020) states that, as of today, York County, based on our population and those over the age of 65, is the least prepared in the nation based on the current number of I.C.U. beds:

“Already in York and the surrounding region, there are few beds in intensive-care units and they’re often occupied. If COVID-19 spreads quickly, as it did in Italy, researchers estimate the need for beds here will be 26 times greater than the existing capacity in ICUs — more than anywhere else in the nation.”

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/spl/pennsylvania-icu-beds-coronavirus-hospital-capacity-20200320.html

For perspective, Pennsylvania has 67 counties, and our nation has 3,142 counties or local equivalents.

Whether we are the most behind the curve, greatly behind the curve, or simply behind the curve is largely immaterial. The need to fortify for bad and worst case scenarios is now. What Martin Luther King, Jr. called “the fierce urgency of now” is upon us.

I have faith, however, that we the people and our public and private leaders and institutions will rally with resolve for meaningful results.

York County already is part of a well-conceived county and regional initiative to marshal resources to flatten the curve: www.PreparedYork.com and www.PreparedCentralPa.com.

As Kevin Schreiber, President/CEO of York County Economic Alliance writes, the Prepared York serves as “a clearinghouse of information for anyone economically impacted by COVID-19.” It’s a regularly updated, trustworthy one-stop source for information on efforts to curb the virus spread.

A collaboration between Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York counties, Prepared Central PA leverages resources and connects businesses across the region.

These are times for facts, fact-checking, objective analysis and sober projections.

These are times for partnership, patriotism and prevention. These are not times for panic, partisanship or pettiness.

In York County and beyond, my bet is that we will rise to the occasion, that our true colors will unfurl.  When the going gets tough, we have a penchant to unite and fight together.  When chips are down, our stubborn courage soars. When times are hard, our lion’s heart roars.

As part of bad case scenario plans, for needed ICU capacity, the following might be good options: shuttered public and charter schools, the York Expo Center, the former Memorial Hospital, York College dorms, York County Prison, HACC-York and Penn State York.

Solid planning is underway. Hopefully, by the time the virus likely peaks here, all things considered, our hospitals and institutions will be reasonably prepared. And hopefully, our people will know so.

As individuals, families, institutions, and businesses, let’s prepare and plan for the bad. Let’s show our best, and we’ll be stronger on the other side.

Months from now, when lessons are digested and the reset button is re-conceived, let’s make sure thorough pandemic planning is a significant part of hospital and county emergency preparedness plans.

Let’s also make sure resource numbers (ICU beds, ventilators, nurses masks, gowns) are part of ongoing measurements, such as the YorkCounts Indicators Reports (a data-based barometer of our well-being), as well as public awareness.

Further, individuals like you can make a difference by pleading with public officials and institutional leaders to improve our emergency capacity. With civility and courtesy, demand transparency, accountability and results. These leaders work for we the people and we the consumers.

Finally, let’s make sure our supply chains for such vital supplies are here at home and not dependent on foreign governments and amoral international conglomerates.

If we fail to plan, we plan to fail.

When we’re prepared for the worst, we’re poised to survive and thrive.

In the coming weeks, as we work together and respect our neighbors as we want to be respected, these can be our finest hours and days.

As Americans, families, citizens, spiritual beings, and good neighbors, this is our time to shine.

Matthew Jackson writes from Hanover.