The health of the hobby, 2020

Whitman publisher Dennis Tucker speaking at the American Numismatic Association National Money Show, February 27, 2020. (Photo by Brandon C. Hall).

For several years when I was a kid, my father and I would plant, nurture, and eventually harvest a big vegetable garden. It was something special he and I shared—my one older brother still living at home didn’t really take to it; my mother helped, but she focused mainly on her flower gardens. It was Dad and I who planned the vegetable garden, plotted its layout on graph paper late each winter or early in the spring, and did most of the work.

Teaching the next generation: Dad with my daughter in July 2018.

Now, umpteen years later, Dad still grows a garden each year. When we catch up by phone or in person, I get an update on how everything is doing—what’s growing well or poorly, what’s been affected by the weather, and what’s seeing a good yield.

My father (left, as Scoutmaster of Boy Scout Troop 750, Phoenix, New York) in 1974. My brothers were all active in scouting, as I later would be.

How do you measure the grassroots health of a hobby? I’ve always felt that the number, depth, and quality of books, magazines, and other products that serve a hobby (like coin-collecting) make good measuring sticks. These are better gauges than just looking at auction records and top-end sale prices. It’s exciting that a 1938-S Mercury dime in MS-68 recently sold for $364,250—even non-collectors are intrigued by such an event. But that’s only one numismatic transaction out of tens of thousands that occur every day.

Walk into a Barnes & Noble or Books-A-Million—the nation’s two largest bookstores—and you’ll see shelves full of hobby references and storage supplies. Those of us who collect coins, medals, tokens, paper money, and other numismatic treasures have a bumper crop to choose from these days.

The price of gold rises and falls, hot investments come and go, the United States Mint releases exciting new coins and medals that capture the popular imagination, market bubbles expand and pop. While all this is happening, the underlying health of the hobby—judging from the wealth of related “stuff” that helps collectors assemble, display, and enjoy their collections—is quite strong.

Gardening, like numismatics, can be both a hobby and a business.

In the coming months you’ll continue to see a diverse library of books from Whitman Publishing in your local bookstores and hobby shops, and online. Charles Morgan and Hubert Walker have ranked the 100 Greatest Modern World Coins in a fascinating new study. Bill Bierly’s In God We Trust goes in-depth in a numismatic and historical exploration of the national motto. The year’s new Red Book, Blue Book, and Mega Red will be on bookshelves before you know it. A bit later in the year, we’ll have the latest volume of the Cherrypickers’ Guide, a new edition of Roger W. Burdette’s Guide Book of Peace Dollars, and many other exciting books. Rumor has it the definitive autobiography of Q. David Bowers is in the offing! Postcard collectors will have a colorful new large-sized reference to enjoy. We’re working on new books in the world-coin arena, and also paper money, exonumia, and American colonials.

That’s not to mention what’s planned and in the works for 2021, 2022, and beyond.

Albums and folders continue to be popular, from the classic blue Whitman folder to handsome leatherette albums. Coin maps, tubes, 2×2-inch holders, and other supplies offer many options for the enthusiast. What do you collect? Browse Whitman’s coin supplies, currency supplies, and stamp supplies, and you’ll find some excellent ways to showcase your collections.

Numismatics is alive and well. Keep an eye open and an ear to the ground as the hobby continues to grow and change. We’ll get the word out as new books and products become ready for you.

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Comments

  1. KEITHSTER says

    Some of the new books coming out sound fun but with google don’t suppose ? The hobby need help that’s for sure! wore my Peace Medal again the last couple of days and it sure turns heads seems to get everyone interested to take a peek? Well Good Luck All 0<"”>O

  2. cagcrisp says

    Today’s LBMA fix for Gold/Silver ratio was the Highest in 29 years…

    02/28/2020 Gold = $1,626.35
    02/28/2020 Silver = $17.185
    Gold/Silver ratio = 94.64:1

    03/06/1991 Gold = $363.60
    03/06/1991 Silver = $3.831
    Gold/Silver ratio = 94.91:1

  3. cagcrisp says

    More and More Gimmicks…

    1. “One limited product will be a colorized Proof 2020-S copper-nickel clad half dollar, with the colorization on the obverse only. The colorized coin will be limited to 75,000 pieces.”

    2. “The Mint also plans to issue 75,000 colorized Proof 2020-P Basketball silver dollars. Only the reverse of the silver dollar will be colorized”

    3. “Another announced limited-edition product is intended for children. The Mint will offer a maximum 75,000-edition 2020 Kid’s Basketball set, featuring an Enhanced Uncirculated 2020-S half dollar, in special packaging. The coin is being struck at the San Francisco Mint.”

    https://www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/basketball-coin-program-includes-three-limited-edition-products

  4. cagcrisp says

    I made this Prediction 11 months ago…

    • cagcrisp says
    March 19, 2019 at 5:55 pm
    “Excluding the Apollo 11 puck and the Kennedy offering
    Gold to Gold, Silver to Silver and Clad to Clad. One Design vs. One Design.
    Revenue for the Basketball coins will Exceed Revenues for the Apollo 11 coins…”

    …SO… here are the numbers I’m shooting at:

    19CA 2019 APOLLO 11 GOLD PROOF 32,862
    19CB 2019 APOLLO 11 GOLD UNC 12,035
    19CC 2019 APOLLO 11 SILVER PROOF 218,995
    19CD 2019 APOLLO 11 SILVER UNC 59,700
    19CE 2019 APOLLO 11 CLAD PROOF 66,822
    19CG 2019 APOLLO 11 CLAD UNC 41,742

  5. cagcrisp says

    W/W changes in LBMA Fix for Gold and Silver…

    Gold Down $7.35/oz. or 0.4%

    Silver Down $1.38/oz. or 7.4%

  6. Jerry Diekmann says

    cagcrisp – “More and More Gimmicks…”

    Three coins with the same design – not good
    Colorizing coins – not good
    Chance of this program having more sales than the baseball coins – not good

    I think the proliferation of gimmicks is going to result in more and more collectors leaving the hobby, or certainly leaving as customers of the Mint.

  7. Buzz Killington says

    Colorized coins? The USM Commemorative series is officially dead to me.

    I think we need to take Congress out of the equation. The USM should mint for hire — your organization wants to Legal Tender silver half-ounce half dollar? It was be YOURS for material costs, design costs, labor costs, and a hefty prestige fee. The Mint could be selling only sold out issues instead of wasting money marketing this tripe.

    As a tribute to free enterprise, I’d rather see the USM go down this path than the path of the RCM, with lots of low mintage, attractive pieces that no one really wants.

  8. CaliSkier says

    @ Cag, it’ll be interesting for sure, however I disagree. I really think we have absolutely hit a crux on US Mint modern issues. As you’ve been saying all along, have all finally gathered, for the perfect storm!

    The Higher and Higher prices, co-joined by More and More Gimmicks, creating Lower & Lower demand and as a result, Lower & Lower mintages as well. Agree 100% The hobby has and continues to change: My collecting days moving forward, are numbered for many reasons, however mostly lack of disposable income and rising prices. . I’ll hold and sit on the sidelines and hope that in the next 10 yeas all PM’s increase, as with my collection consisting mainly of moderns, it seems higher spot prices will exceed any premiums for said collection?

    @ Jerry, I agree 100 %

  9. Hidalgo says

    I believe that if the US Mint wants to generate more excitement in coin collecting, it needs to introduce more low-mintage CIRCULATING coins with appealing or “collectible” designs to the general public. Generating excitement among the public will help to increase interest and revenue of US Mint products.

    US commemorative, proof sets, mint sets, medals, etc. cater to a small niche of Americans. From what I’ve read from various coin-themed websites, most purchases of US mint products seem to be from coin dealers, who then, re-sell the coins (in graded or ungraded forms) at elevated prices.

  10. Hawkster says

    No details on the 2020 kid’s basketball set, other than it will contain an S minted enhanced half dollar. Could it be similar to the Apollo 11 clad half dollar set, containing an enhanced clad Kennedy and an clad basketball half dollar?

  11. cagcrisp says

    @Datadave says,”I will take the under on the basketball commemoratives versus the Apollo 11 ones.”

    I’m talking Revenue… Are You?

    “Excluding the Apollo 11 puck and the Kennedy offering
    Gold to Gold, Silver to Silver and Clad to Clad. One Design vs. One Design.
    Revenue for the Basketball coins will Exceed Revenues for the Apollo 11 coins…”

  12. cagcrisp says

    “Excluding the Apollo 11 puck and the Kennedy offering
    Gold to Gold, Silver to Silver and Clad to Clad. One Design vs. One Design.
    Revenue for the Basketball coins will Exceed Revenues for the Apollo 11 coins”

    cagcrisp Over
    CaliSkier Under
    Datadave Under

  13. KEITHSTER says

    Yes sir I can see them now a curved colorized W mint enhanced uncirculated circulating hall of fame nickel has been found in the change at the Walmart! Might work but only if they did not tell any body first But you still could buy them by the bay by the roll shortly there after ? So Good Luck With That All Hey o”<<"<" But it would be worth a try????

  14. birddog says

    unless iam looking at this wrong since when did the mint sell anything on a saturday april 4 basketball coins,the mint maybe has the date wrong

  15. CaliSkier says

    My thoughts weren’t based on revenue. I’d been thinking we were talking mintages? Yes with higher prices there may be a slight increase in revenue? IMO the 2020 BB commems will sell less(mintage) Gold $5(PF/UNC), silver dollars(PF/UNC)as well as the clad offerings(PF/UNC) than 2019’s Apollo offerings.

  16. datadave says

    Revenue? How much are they jacking the prices? 15%? I think the curved coin thing has lost its attraction. I would not bet against a football shape coin, but basketball fans compared to Apollo fans? I’ll take the under on both sales and revenue. But I guess we might not know right away because they can’t publish numbers. 🙂

  17. cagcrisp says

    @datadave says,”Revenue? How much are they jacking the prices? 15%? I think the curved coin thing has lost its attraction. I would not bet against a football shape coin, but basketball fans compared to Apollo fans? I’ll take the under on both sales and revenue. But I guess we might not know right away because they can’t publish numbers. ”

    Good Deal…

  18. The RCB says

    “Datadave says

    FEBRUARY 29, 2020 AT 1:17 PM

    Soak the Kennedy collectors again! They have to sell the commemoratives some way.”

    From the way the article reads it appears the enhanced uncirculated half is the commemorative half and not a Kennedy half

  19. cagcrisp says

    @Jerry Diekmann says,”Cagcrisp – “Stock market bubble letting some air out”

    Yes, indeed it is a bubble, and for all the dismay that is affecting the market, it is still up more than it was just last August. The decline began at the very top of the market and the downturn has been sudden, the classic example of a correction. Now, next week the correction could change and the market could start recovering, but if it continues to decline then it could mark the beginning of a bear market. From what I know, bear markets start slower and last longer than corrections. In any case, stocks have been overvalued for quite awhile, and a downturn was inevitable. The stock market hates uncertainty, and a large part of the decline could be attributed to the lack of faith in our current government’s ability to tell the truth and take steps to control the coronavirus here in this country.”

    Here are some emails that I have sent out to members of this blog:

    This email was sent on Tuesday February 18, 2020, to a member of this blog:

    “i sold a sizeable portion of my stocks this morning. I don’t think the market has enough risk built in. Moved it to cash and will probably keep it there waiting for either a dip or put it in short term treasuries.”

    This email was sent on Thursday February 26, 2020, to another member of this blog:

    “i sold some stocks a week ago on Tuesday. I bought back in on Monday afternoon and sold out again on Tuesday morning pre-market when Dow Futures were up +200. I’m currently underweight stocks. I think we have bubbles all around. I think Precious Metals, stocks and bonds are all in a bubble. Setting in cash is a good thing. Being in the ______ you only have so many moves to make and you cant make any Real Time trades. In this volitile market timing is everything. I told _____ you have to watch the 10 year. Forget about the stock market telling you anything because people are accustomed to buying the dips. I’m afraid that the 10 year Could get as low as 1.00%. IF that happens it will set the Fed up to cut rates again which should help the stock market. The only problem with the 10 year going down to 1.00% is that things would have to be REALLY weak for that to happen.
    The bubble Im seeing in precious metals is that virtually all the money coming in is going to Gold vs. Silver. That tells me that Gold is leading and Silver is being drug along. When the Fed cuts, and then the stock market could pop upwards and suck all the money out of Gold”

    This email was sent on Friday February 28, 2020, to another member of this blog:

    “Gold/Silver showed today that there is NO safe haven. Look at yields on Treasurys: 30 year at 1.679%. 10 year closed at 1.15%, 2 year at 0.93%. 1 year at 1.02%. There is NO where to hide. You can’t make money in bond market unless rates go Lower. IF you’re in bond market just for the yield, you’re going to lose money to inflation. Silver sold off 6.25% today. Even with stocks taking a beating and P/Es so high, don’t see in Long Run you have any options but to be in stocks.”

  20. cagcrisp says

    This data come from Sales Totals by Month for the United States Mint for Bullion coins…

    Keep in mind that American Silver Eagle Bullion sales for 2019 were the Worst year for sales since 2007

    Keep in mind that American Gold Eagle Bullion sales for 2019 were the Worst year for sales since Inception in 1986

    Keep in mind that American Buffalo Gold Bullion sales for 2019 were the Worst year for sales since Inception in 2006

    …SO…How does Unites States Mint Bullion coins sales for 2020 compare to United States Mint Bullion coin sales for 2019?

    American Silver Eagle Bullion…
    Feb-19 2019 American Silver Eagle Bullion 2 month = 6,075,000 oz.
    Feb-20 2020 American Silver Eagle Bullion 2 month = 4,496,000 oz.
    Down 26.0%
    2020 American Silver Eagle Bullion is tracking to be the Worst year since 2007…

    American Gold Eagle Bullion…
    Feb-19 2019 American Gold Eagle Bullion 2 month = 78,500 oz.
    Feb-20 2020 American Gold Eagle Bullion 2 month = 67,000 oz.
    Down 14.6%
    2020 American Gold Eagle Bullion is tracking to be the Worst year since Inception in 1986…

    American Buffalo Gold Bullion…
    Feb-19 2019 American Buffalo Gold Bullion 2 month = 29,000 oz.
    Feb-20 2020 American Buffalo Gold Bullion 2 month = 22,000 oz.
    Down 24.1%
    2020 American Buffalo Gold Bullion is tracking to be the Worst year since Inception in 2006…

  21. cagcrisp says

    My ^ post is On Topic

    “The health of the hobby, 2020”

    Lower and Lower Mintages, Higher and Higher Prices, More and More Gimmicks, and Fewer and Fewer Customers…

  22. IJTR says

    Other world mints are and have been cleaning up with the gimmicks and low mintage instant rarities. That seems to be what the market wants.

  23. Tom P. - MA says

    @IJTR, yes even though they are obvious gimmicks, they do seem to work. In my case I did stop buying from the Canadian mint after they began putting out about 50 different releases per year of which 45 were colored coins. All I can think of is the colored plate craze of the late 80’s. Needless to say I’m not going to partake in any US Mint colored coin craze. I’m sure many will, they will just have to do without me.

  24. cagcrisp says

    The Lowest auction price yet for a graded 70 2019-S Enhanced Reverse Proof American Silver Eagle happened Today…

    $1,375.00

  25. Hawkster says

    Keithster,

    More often than not you break the ice with the first comment of a new thread. I’m actually a bit disappointed when I don’t see your comment in the lead-off position, always ending with a “good luck to all” send off.
    But how is it that you have the uncanny ability to lead off the comments? Are you tipped off by MNB? Just great anticipation on your part? Or what?

  26. KEITHSTER says

    Just Good Luck I think the old what goes around comes around? Did luck into the next one but would still like to hear from any one who checks their old pucks and looks for the hole in the lip that started from get go and lasted until the volcanos that I know of? So Good Luck All <"<"<"

  27. Jerry Diekmann says

    cagcrisp – today the stock market saw a big gain, which is normal for a correction – steep dive, followed by big runup. But I don’t think the stock market’s plunge last week was all due to the coronavirus scare. That was just a warning of a bear market ahead because the economy is not nearly as robust as the pundits would have you believe. Trump’s policies and programs may have benefitted the rich but they have harmed the middle class and the poor. That tax decrease for the rich and the corporations resulted in propping up the market because the rich did not let their tax savings “trickle down” to the rest of us (supply side economics doesn’t work) and the corporations bought back a lot of their shares, increasing their earnings per share (EPS) and thereby their stock price. A lot of smoke and mirrors.

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