New Pa. election poll: Biden leads Dems, Trump job performance up amid impeachment

Nearly nine months before Pennsylvania voters head to the polls in an important battleground state, a new Franklin & Marshall College Poll shows three in five voters believe it's time for a change.

And in a diverse state with three powerful voting blocs — rural, urban and suburban — the question is always which candidate will generate the most support at the polls.

Former Vice President Joe Biden is a 7-point favorite among Pennsylvania voters to win the Democratic nomination for president, according to the latest Franklin & Marshall poll. He is leading a deep field of candidates, polling at 22 percent in Pennsylvania.

Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren follow with 15 percent and 14 percent, respectively. Additional polling data shows Michael Bloomberg with 7 percent, Pete Buttigieg with 6 percent, and Amy Klobuchar and Andrew Yang both with 5 percent. 

The list:Who is running for president in 2020? An interactive guide

Biden is getting most of his Pennsylvania support — and has a double-digit lead over his opponents — among moderates, voters older than 55, nonwhites, those with a high school education or less, Catholics, born-again Christians, and voters who live in the Philadelphia suburbs.  

'Can’t take any of them for granted':Meet the key voters who could decide if Trump's reelected

His closest competitors, Sanders and Warren, are getting more than 70 percent of their support from liberals. They also poll higher than Biden among white, college-educated voters who are younger than 55. 

President Trump's job performance increasing

The poll released Thursday morning also shows President Donald J. Trump's job performance increasing amid impeachment proceedings. 

Some 41 percent of Pennsylvania voters said they had a favorable view of the president during polling, which was Jan. 20 to 26. That includes 28 percent of respondents who said they had a "strongly favorable" view of the president.

Those numbers are comparable to Democrats. Biden's favorable rating is 43 percent, Sanders is at 39, Warren is at 37, and Buttigieg is at 32. 

His favorable rating is higher now than it was the month before he was elected president. In October 2016, just weeks before he won Pennsylvania and was elected president, Trump's favorable rating was at 35 percent, with 23 percent of respondents saying they had a "strongly favorable" view of the president. 

Analysis:Has the Pennsylvania primary suddenly become a deal-maker for the Dems?

The president's highest marks in Pennsylvania are for the economy. 

When asked how they were doing financially, 87 percent of Pennsylvania voters said they were doing OK. At least 33 percent said they were doing better this year than last year, 54 percent said they were about the same, and 12 percent said they were worse off. 

The increase in Trump's favorable rating was marginal, but it underscores that his biggest strength is the economy.

"In this state and across the nation, there are more jobs than qualified people to fill them," said Terry Madonna, political analyst and pollster at Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. 

Primary voices:Joe Biden says he can win over working-class voters in Pa. Here's what the voters say

About 41 percent of Pennsylvania voters said he deserves to be re-elected, and 57 percent said it's time for a change. 

Trump pulled off an upset in Pennsylvania in 2016, winning by a narrow 44,000 votes. 

Is the economy enough to help him win Pennsylvania again?

"I'm not saying he will carry Pennsylvania, but I won't rule it out," Madonna said.

How Pennsylvania fits into the big picture

The Franklin & Marshall Poll in Pennsylvania is reflective of polls nationally. Biden has a 4-point lead nationally, according to Real Clear Politics. 

His support in Pennsylvania is down from 30 percent in October to 22 percent last week. The 8-point change may be attributed to Bloomberg entering the race. He was not part of the polling in October. This month, he had 7 percent of the vote. 

Like Biden, Bloomberg polls well among moderate voters who live in the suburbs and are older than 55.

Bloomberg is taking a run at Pennsylvania, opening an office in Philadelphia and hiring staff. The billionaire has also spent about $11 million on television and radio ads in Pennsylvania, according to Advertising Analytics, an ad-tracking firm. He has spent more than $88 million on ads in 27 states, the firm said. His ads take aim at Trump and focus on healthcare. 

More:At packed Hershey rally and facing impeachment, Trump says he'll win re-election in 2020

Healthcare is the top issue among voters choosing a Democrat, followed by a candidate who can defeat Trump, and the environment, according to the Franklin & Marshall poll. 

Biden is viewed as the candidate most likely to defeat Trump in the Pennsylvania primary and general election. Last week, he picked up two congressional endorsements in swing districts: Rep. Chrissy Houlahan of Chester County and Rep. Conor Lamb of Allegheny County.

Biden, a Scranton native whose campaign is headquartered in Philadelphia, is someone with a steady hand who can help heal the country, Houlahan said in a statement. 

"Pennsylvania is not red or blue but a purple place which our next president needs to carry to win," she said. 

The answer to that question may be found in the Pennsylvania poll and others across the nation, especially in battleground states, analysts said. 

"The two leading Democrats, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, poll somewhat similarly in hypothetical match-ups with Donald Trump, but Biden’s numbers are consistently stronger," said Alan Abramowitz, a political science professor at Emory University and a senior columnist with Sabato's Crystal Ball.