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Basse sees flat corn and soybean demand for ’20

AgResource economist Dan Basse sees flat demand for corn and soybeans in 2020.

“We’ve got African swine fever in China that’s killed 175 or 200 million head of hogs depending upon whose numbers you want to believe. That’s a lot of snouts to be feeding. Outside of that, biofuels is mature. We’re seeing a little bit of growth maybe in Malaysia with palm oil for biodiesel usage. But outside of that, I lack a demand driver.”

On African swine fever, he calls the outbreak a black swan hanging over the grain and oilseed market.

“China was that one demand driver that we could count on every year for an extra 3 to 6 million metric tons of soybean trade because of their expansion in livestock. With the hog herd, which is their primary meat, is now suffering because of ASF, it’s been a big, big change.”

Basse says world grain trade is expanding about 1.3 percent, which is not enough to counter a 2.7 percent increase in yield.

Basse made these comments to AgWired at the American Seed Trade Association Conference in Chicago Tuesday.