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What if the five-year slump turns into ten?

For many farmers, the last five years have been breakeven at best.

So what if the ag economy continues to struggle for another five years?

Kansas City Federal Reserve economist Nathan Kauffman says that’s one of his big concerns.

“If you add another five years to that, that’s ten years’ time—and a decade is a long time to be in an environment where it’s difficult to make investments for long-term planning, if you’re a producer,” Kauffman says.

If the current environment persists, he says, increased farm consolidation is likely.

“I think that the changes over the past five years have been especially pronounced for what we would call, say, a mid-sized operation,” Kauffman says. “They might need to either decide whether they try to get large and take advantage of scale, or whether they try to stay small and nimble and identify opportunities.”

Kauffman made those comments in an interview at last week’s ag bankers conference in Dallas.