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Hog futures mixed on supply and demand concerns

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live cattle ended the day mostly firm with support from stronger cash trade and wholesale values.  Feeder cattle were mixed on spread trade.  December live cattle closed $.25 higher at $119.25 and February live cattle closed $.17 higher at $125.02.  November feeder cattle closed $.22 higher at $147 and January feeder cattle closed $.10 higher at $145.87. 

Direct cash cattle trade activity wrapped up the week with light to moderate business reported in the South at $114 to $115 live, $2 to $3 higher than last week’s weighted averages.  Northern live deals were at $114 to mostly $116, steady to $2 higher than last week’s weighted averages basis in Nebraska.  On Thursday a moderate dressed trade was reported in parts of the North at mostly $181 and $182, generally $1 to $2 higher than last week’s weighted average basis in Nebraska. 

In Missouri for the week, receipts were up on the week and the year.  Compared to last week, feeders were firm to $6 higher.  The supply was moderate to heavy.  There continues to be several yearlings sold around the state at various auctions.  Demand was moderate to good and discounts continue to be applied to calves with short or no weaning programs.  Feeder supply included 54 percent steers and 50 percent of the offering was over 600 pounds.  Medium and Large 1 feeder steers 500 to 549 pounds brought $131 to $178 and feeder steers 700 to 749 pounds brought $125 to $159.75.  Medium and Large 1 feeder heifers 500 to 548 pounds brought $118 to 4156 and feeder heifers 700 to 747 pounds brought $110 to $150.10.   

At the Nebraska Hay Market this week, compared to last week alfalfa, grass hay, and ground and delivered hay were steady.  In Eastern/Central Nebraska: Alfalfa Premium large squares brought $176 to $200; Good large squares brought $160 to $165; Fair large squares brought $135; Good large rounds brought $95 to $105 with a few at $115.  Prairie Hay: Premium large rounds brought $125; Good large rounds brought $90 to $100 with a few at $115; Fair large rounds brought $75 to $85.  Premium small squares brought $170 to $180.  In the Platte Valley area of Nebraska: Alfalfa: Good large rounds brought $105 to $110 with a few at $115.  Grass hay: Good large rounds brought $115 to $120; Fair large rounds brought $90.  Ground and delivered alfalfa brought $140 to $145.  Dehy alfalfa pellets 17 percent protein brought $270 to $275 and Sun-cured alfalfa 15 percent protein brought $240.  In Western Nebraska, Alfalfa: Supreme large squares brought $195 to $215; Premium large squares brought $180; Good large squares brought $160 to $170; Fair large squares brought $130 to $140.  Ground and delivered alfalfa brought $153 to $158 and sun-cured alfalfa pellets 15 percent protein brought $255. 

Boxed beef closed higher on Choice and steady on Select on light to moderate demand and offerings.  Choice closed $.83 higher at $239.12 and Select closed $.24 higher at $213.26.  The Choice/Select spread closed at $25.86.  Estimated cattle slaughter is 117,000 head, down 1,000 on the week and up 2,000 on the year.  Saturday’s estimated kill is 64,000 head, down 10,000 on the week and up 10,000 on the year. 

Lean hog futures were mixed on spread adjustments.  The market is still trying to decide if there’s enough demand potential for US pork on the global market to keep up with increasing supplies.  December lean hogs closed $.17 lower at $64.12 and February lean hogs closed $.12 higher at $73.90. 

Cash hogs closed weak with fairly light negotiated purchase numbers.  The heavy supply continues to limit the market’s ability for prices to move higher.  Slaughter runs hit record or near-record totals almost daily and there is no shortage of market-ready hogs.  That combined with the demand uncertainty and the concern that China isn’t going to significantly boost their imports of US pork has the industry unsettled.  Barrows and gilts at the Iowa/Southern Minnesota had no comparison but a weighted average of $42.83; the Western Corn Belt also had no comparison but a weighted average of $42.80; the Eastern Corn Belt was not reported due to confidentiality; and the National Daily Direct closed $.39 lower with a base range of $41 to $46 for a weighted average of $44.85. 

The USDA says all early-weaned pigs were $1 per head higher and all feeder pigs were steady.  Demand was moderate for moderate offerings and receipts included 38 percent formulated prices.  Total composite formula range was $29 to $49.68 for a weighted average of $41.43 and Total Composite cash range was $22 to $38 for a weighted average of $31.02.  Total Composite weighted average for all early-weaned pigs was $35.19 and the average for all feeder pigs was $44.62. 

The Midwest cash markets were closed today.  At Illinois, slaughter sow prices were $2 lower at $28 to $42 with moderate demand for moderate offerings.  Barrow and gilt prices were $2 lower at $27 to $31 with moderate demand for moderate offerings. 

Pork values closed sharply higher – up $2.03 at $82.67.  Hams, bellies, and ribs were sharply higher.  Butts and picnics were firm.  Loins were steady.  Estimated hog slaughter is 484,000 head, down 2,000 on the week and up 10,000 on the year.  Saturday’s estimated kill is 244,000 head, up 6,000 on the week and up 22,000 on the year. 

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