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China’s pork production set to decline another 25% in 2020

The USDA’s latest Livestock World Market and Trade report projects Chinese pork production to decline another 25 percent in 2020. 

University of Missouri’s Scott Brown says that presents a tremendous market opportunity for the US pork sector.  “Back in 2015 the Chinese produced 56.5 billion metric tons of pork,” he says.  “But from 56.5 to 34.8 billion metric tons in 2020 – and that’s why everybody’s looking at what’s the opportunity for trade.”

On the demand side, the USDA projects China’s pork imports to increase 35 percent next year.  Brown says the US is in a great position to capitalize on China’s needs – especially as US pork production is expected to grow another 4 percent in 2020.  “The absolute growth in the United States pork production in 2020 likely exceeds the growth in everybody else excluding us and the Chinese,” he says.  “It keeps reminding me we’ve got to be able to move some of that product outside of the United States, I believe – if we want to try and keep prices at some reasonable level.”

Brown says China is also likely to turn to the EU and Brazil to meet their pork demand needs.