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Economist says 2019 organic production is down

An economist expects organic crop production to be lower this year. Ryan Koory with Mercaris says, “We’re looking at fewer organic corn acres to be harvested this year. Much beyond that, we’re looking at fewer soybean acres and we’re looking at lower yields, so that means we’re going to be looking at a tighter U.S. production.”

Koory tells Brownfield the conventional growers look at exports, but the U.S. organic sector has always relied heavily on imports. “If we look at last year, I think we imported somewhere around 25% of our organic corn needs and somewhere around 75% to 80% of our organic soybean needs, and that was last year before we had production issues.”

Koory says unlike conventionally grown commodities, the organic sector doesn’t have reliable data for carryover stocks or what goes into food use, but he does believe some organic growers held onto some of last year’s corn and soybeans. “Anecdotally, I’ve heard that we have some heavier carryover stocks coming out of this year, I think primarily due to the fact that people were expecting supplies to be tight and think maybe people were holding onto stuff.”

But with production down and a somewhat smaller demand for livestock, Koory still sees room for more organic imports in the next year.