News

USDA lowers new crop U.S. soybean ending stocks

The USDA has cut its outlook for new crop U.S. soybean ending stocks. The biggest changes to the balance sheet were in beginning stocks, or old crop ending stocks, with the USDA saying there was improved crush and export demand at the end of last marketing year. The USDA’s lower production and higher residual use estimates were also contributors. Corn ending stocks were up slightly on the month with bigger beginning stocks mostly cancelling out lower production and ethanol demand expectations. There were no changes to the domestic balance sheet for wheat. The 2019/20 U.S. marketing year got underway June 1st for wheat and September 1st for corn and soybeans.

Globally, the USDA lowered soybean ending stocks, but left South American production and Chinese import guesses unchanged, while world corn ending stocks were down modestly and wheat was a little larger.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out October 10th.

2019/20 U.S. wheat ending stocks came out at 1.014 billion bushels, unchanged from August and down from the 1.072 billion at the end of 2018/19. The USDA made no changes to the balance sheet. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $4.80 per bushel, compared to $5.00 a month ago and $5.16 in the previous marketing year.

2019/20 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 2.190 billion bushels, compared to 2.181 billion last month and 2.445 billion last marketing year. The USDA raised beginning stocks, or 2018/19 ending stocks, while lowering production and ethanol use. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $3.60 per bushel, unchanged from both August and the current estimate for 2018/19.

2019/20 U.S. soybean ending stocks were pegged at 640 million bushels, compared to 755 million a month ago and 1.005 billion for the recent ended marketing year. The USDA’s beginning stocks had a month to month trim because of better than anticipated crush and export demand late in the marketing year. The 2019 production guess was also down, while residual use was up slightly. The average 2019/20 farm price is estimated at $8.50 per bushel, compared to $8.40 last month and $8.50 last marketing year.

2019/20 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 286.51 million tons, compared to 285.4 million in August. Production was down about 2.5 million tons at 765.53 million, with reduced expectations for Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine canceling out an increase for the European Union. Domestic feed use is projected at 149.04 million tons, compared to 150.32 million a month ago, and exports are estimated at 180.83 million tons, compared to 182.63 million last month.

2019/20 world corn ending stocks are expected to be 306.27 million tons, compared to 307.72 million a month ago. Global production is seen at 1.105 billion tons, down more than 3 million on the month, on that smaller U.S. outlook. Domestic feed use is pegged at 694.24 million tons, compared to 694.44 million last month, and exports are projected at 169.90 million tons, unchanged from August.

2019/20 world soybean ending stocks are estimated at 99.19 million tons, compared to 101.74 million last month. The world crop is estimated at 341.39 million tons, compared to 341.83 million a month ago. The USDA lowered the outlooks for the U.S. and European Union slightly, while raising China just a little and leaving Argentina and Brazil unchanged. Domestic crush use is projected at 306.23 million tons, compared to 307.08 million in August, and exports are expected to be 149.39 million tons, compared to 149.17 million a month ago. The USDA did leave South American exports and Chinese imports unchanged.

Add Comment

Your email address will not be published.


 

Stay Up to Date

Subscribe for our newsletter today and receive relevant news straight to your inbox!