York-Adams football: Looking into the crystal ball for the 2019 season

If there's one thing that's great about being a sportswriter, it's that predictions you make never, ever, ever come back to haunt you later on. 

Oh, wait ... 

Look, it's August. And while talk of division races and position battles being "wide-open" are often just coach-speak, there is an element of truth to it. We never know what is going to happen in sports, especially when it comes to high school athletics. 

That never stopped a bold man from trying to figure it out, though. 

Here's my best bet at what we'll see out of York-Adams football in 2019. I'm sure nobody will have any disagreements with any of it. 

New Oxford scratches its way to a .500 season or better 

This might seem like a hot take, but there is a good consensus around Division I that the Colonials are going to keep better this season. After two straight winless seasons, New Oxford went 3-7 last season, its best campaign since a 6-5 playoff season in 2013, back when it played in Division II. 

Can the Colonials post their first winning record as a Division I program? That will be tough. There are simply a lot of strong programs there, and the Colonials' non-conference schedule isn't exactly easy with games against Bermudian Springs and Solanco. 

But I'll say the Colonials at least get to 5-5 by winning one or two more non-conference games (1-2 there last season) or an additional league contest. That could possibly get them a playoff spot in the 14-team bracket in Class 5A. 

If you're looking for another Adams County teams to make a jump this season, Biglerville feels confident it will improve after a 2-8 season last year. 

Speaking of New Oxford ... 

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QBs make runs at the record books 

Last season, Cade Pribula didn't just rewrite the passing section of the York County record book, he obliterated it. The Central York quarterback broke the mark for career passing yards five weeks into the season and finished with 6,923 yards, topping York Suburban grad Thomas Merkle's previous record by 1,300 yards. He also set the career marks for touchdowns and completions. 

While it won't come easily, New Oxford senior Brayden Long could set the Adams County record for career passing yards currently held by 2008 Gettysburg grad and former Penn State player Evan Lewis —set when the Warriors still competed in the Mid-Penn. Long is currently 2,189 yards from Lewis' incredible mark of 6,194. 

Long, who has thrown for 1,851 and 2,154 yards the past two seasons, will have to produce his best season yet to break the record. But great high school QBs tend to make a leap as seniors (Pribula and Merkle are examples) and the 6-foot-3 signal caller definitely has the physical tools and probably the weapons around him to accomplish it. I'll say that despite playing in a more balanced offense, Long tops 2,200 yards to set the record. 

Regardless, Long needs just over 1,600 yards to pass Merkle and take the No. 2 spot in YAIAA history behind Pribula. Additionally, West York senior Corey Wise needs 1,698 yards to pass Merkle, a number he will likely get after topping 2,000 yards last season. While Pribula's mark will remain untouchable for a while, Long and Wise should finish their careers right behind him. 

York Suburban senior leads league in rushing

The league has seen a string of 2,000-yard rushing seasons from York Catholic's Jakkar Kinard in 2016 (2,063), Dallastown's Nyzair Smith in 2017 (2,087) and York High's Dayjure Stewart in 2018 (league-record 3,045). 

Could there be a fourth in a row this season? 

The top candidate to get there is York Suburban's Savion Harrison, who as a junior topped 1,231 yards and averaged 7.2 yards per carry. 

Topping 2,000 yards as a high school player is extremely tough. If you play in one playoff game (Kinard, Smith and Stewart all played in at least one) you still need to average 182 yards per contest. When you consider coaches often want to pull their best players from lopsided games, it's understandable why even some of the best running backs don't accomplish it. 

But Harrison has a lot going for him beyond pure talent. The 5-foot-9, 170-pound senior will be the offensive focal point on a team with playoff aspirations and he'll be running behind a massive and experienced offensive line and a battering ram fullback in Keyvon Wright. 

At YAIAA football media day, senior tackle Devante Embrey-Banks said the Suburban line hopes to get Harrison over 3,000 yards. Like most team players would, Harrison downplayed that bold goal. 

"The goal is to get the wins, and if the yards come, then they come," he said. 

In fact, Harrison's own versatility could hurt him since he'll also be a prime receiving target out of the backfield. Trojans coach Andy Loucks has also said he wants to get other players involved so Harrison doesn't have to do everything. 

But the yards are going to come this year, and with a playoff game or two on the schedule, Harrison will have a prime chance to lead the league in rushing and could squeak by the 2K mark. 

Two other backs who could put up monster numbers this season: Northeastern's Manny Capo and York High's Tyrell Whitt. 

More:York-Adams 2019 football preview: Breaking down Division I teams 🏈

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Which teams will win division titles?

Here's where the fun really begins ... 

With a week to go until opening day, here's my best shot at predicting division titles. 

Division I: York High, Red Lion (split)

Division II: York Suburban 

Division III: York Catholic

Splitting the Division I crown might seem like a cop-out, but I'm really siding with recent history here. This would be the third straight year two teams share the title. As for going with the two teams that split it last year? I could write Central York, Northeastern, Red Lion and York High on four ping-pong balls, throw those balls in a jar, close my eyes and pick two out and be cool with those as my predictions. 

Yes, York High graduated a couple of unreal playmakers, but they have talented players coming in at the skill positions. What I really like about the Bearcats is they bring back four starters on the offensive line and a bunch of experienced defensive linemen and linebackers. New quarterback (and Division I recruit) Tobee Stokes and new running back Tyrell Whitt will have an easier time adjusting to bigger roles when they have the time and space to make plays. 

Red Lion simply reloads every year under Jesse Shay. The Lions could graduate every single starter and I wouldn't bet against them. Heck, they basically did that after 2016 — graduating 19 of them — and still went 8-2 the following year. 

I think the hype around a talented Northeastern team is legit. I think Josh Oswalt could be building something special at Central York, and I think sophomore quarterback Beau Pribula is the real deal. And Dallastown will be competitive, though the Wildcats lost a lot. Feel free to laugh at this column in three months if any of those teams runs away with the crown. 

But not everyone gets to win the title. 

The consensus around the league is that the Division II title will come down to York Suburban and Gettysburg. I concur. I give the edge to the Trojans based on the sheer amount of talent they have, but I do believe Gettysburg has reasons to be confident with a good group back from an excellent 2018 team. This division could easily end with a split title. 

And I think Division III will again come down to reloading York Catholic and Delone Catholic teams. As usual, Bermudian Springs and Littlestown will also be in the hunt. 

Here's the deal with the Irish vs. the Squires: I thought York Catholic would take care of business at home two years ago, and Delone pummeled them physically. I thought Delone Catholic was the better team all last season, and York Catholic blew them out for the division title and outlasted them for the District 3 crown. 

The point is, I'm not good at predicting this rivalry. For now, I'll give the edge to the team coming off a 12-1 season, though this year's Week 9 matchup is in McSherrystown. 

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What teams make the District 3 playoffs?

Last season, the YAIAA was represented by 11 teams in the postseason as District 3 expanded the number of participants from 32 to 44. 

I think the breakdown will end up being similar this year with a lot of the same teams making it in. Here's my best bet: 

Class 6A

Red Lion (9-1)

Central York (7-3)

Class 5A

York High (8-2) 

Northeastern (7-3) 

Class 4A

York Suburban (9-1)

Gettysburg (8-2) 

Susquehannock (6-4) 

Class 3A

Littlestown (7-3) 

Bermudian Springs (7-3) 

Class 2A

York Catholic (9-1) 

Delone Catholic (8-2) 

Class 1A

Fairfield (2-8) 

That's 12 teams. Others that could contend for spots: Dallastown in 6A, New Oxford in 5A and West York in 4A. Susquehannock might be the biggest surprise on my list, but the Warriors bring back a lot of experience and could field a similar squad to its 2017 team that went 8-2. 

And here are two bonus predictions: I think the Class 2A title is won by either York Catholic or Delone Catholic, and a YAIAA Class 6A team wins a playoff game, giving York County its first postseason win in the big-school classification since Dallastown in 2013. 

It has to happen some time. Why not this year?