The Independent View: Twenty Candidates Set to Debate Stage in Detroit

The Field is set for the Second round of Democratic Primary Debates, and a number of Candidates will go onstage knowing it could be their Last.

Twenty Candidates have qualified for Two nights of Debates in Detroit on July 30th-31st, according to a POLITICO analysis, including Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, who Missed the First Debates in June but vaulted onto the Stage after Rep. Eric Swalwell’s Campaign Ended. Mike Gravel, the Former Alaska Senator, also accrued the Requisite Number of Donors to Qualify for the Debate, but Bullock has the Tiebreaker for the 20th and Final Slot, with Support in More Public Polls.

POLITICO projects these 20 Candidates will appear in the Detroit Debates: Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Bill de Blasio, Cory Booker, Steve Bullock, Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, John Hickenlooper, Jay Inslee, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Tim Ryan, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Marianne Williamson, and Andrew Yang.

But aside from the Five Candidates Polling at the Top of the field and raising the most Money, the future is uncertain for the Democratic Presidential field. Many are at risk of running out of Money unless they get a spike of Fundraising and Attention, and this Debate could be their last chance to attract eyeballs before the usually quieter summer months.

Harris and Castro, in particular, got Campaign-changing jolts of Support and Fundraising after the June Debates. Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee’s (DNC) Polling and Fundraising Thresholds for later Debates are set to rise significantly, putting pressure on lesser-known Candidates.

Today, the DNC will inform the Presidential Campaigns who has made the Debate Stage. CNN will then host a Live Drawing on Thursday Evening to determine which Candidates will appear on which nights. Qualification for the July Debate Closes at Midnight Tuesday, but the Composition of the Public Polls released so far make it all but impossible for the Debate lineup to shift before then.

CNN has Not said how it will divide the Candidates, though the Network’s Process will be at least Partially Random. For the First Debates, NBC News divided the Candidates into Two Groups based on their Polling Averages and Evenly and Randomly divided Candidates from each Group across the Two nights.

In addition to Mike Gravel, some other Current and Former Democratic Officeholders did Not Qualify for the July Debates: Wayne Messam, Seth Moulton, and Joe Sestak. Tom Steyer, the Billionaire Financier who just entered the Presidential Campaign, also Failed to Qualify.

Julián Castro collected nearly 40% of his entire Second-Quarter Fundraising Haul after a Strong Performance during the First Debate, pouring Money into a Campaign Account that was starting to Empty.

Kamala Harris also finished the Second Quarter on a Fundraising Surge after Clashing with Biden, raising Millions of Dollars in the hours and days after their June Debate.

It won’t get easier to get a Guaranteed National Audience for many of these Candidates, and the shift could halt some Campaigns. The DNC’s Thresholds for the First Fall Debates are much steeper. Candidates need 2% in Four National Polls and 130,000 Unique Donors, including 400 Donors apiece in 20 States. The Majority of the field is Not on track to clear those Hurdles before the September Debate.

Six Democratic Presidential Candidates have met Both of the Increased Thresholds: Biden, Buttigieg, Harris, O’Rourke, Sanders, and Warren.

O’Rourke became the latest Candidate to Qualify on Tuesday, after getting 2% in a CNN/University of New Hampshire Poll.

A few other Candidates have hit at least One of the Two required Thresholds. Booker has hit the Polling Threshold and is close to hitting the Donor Mark, his Campaign has said.

Castro and Yang, meanwhile, have each Collected 130,000 Donors already.

Klobuchar needs to hit 2% in One more Poll and about get 30,000 more Donors to secure her Spot.

Gabbard needs fewer than 29,000 additional Donors, but she has yet to hit even 1% in any Polls.

Even the Candidates getting Close to the Thresholds are Not Guaranteed to make the Future Debates. And for everyone else, it will be an even Steeper climb.

Qualification for the September Debate closes on Aug. 28th.