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Analysis of late-planted corn yields raises eyebrows

A historical analysis of corn yield losses in abnormally late planting years is raising eyebrows among some farmers and market analysts.

Iowa State University ag economist Chad Hart focused on three years with the slowest planting progress—1983, 1993 and 1995—years that saw significant drops in yield.

“Here in 2019, we were even beyond those years in terms of the delays,” Hart says. “And so the historical model would suggest quite sizeable losses here, on the order of 20 to 22 percent.”

Hart says a 21 percent decline in the 2019 trend line corn yield of 173 bushels per acre would put the national average yield in the 135 bushel per acre range.

But Hart stresses that is not his prediction.

“It’s too early in the crop year to really say which way we’re heading. We definitely need to see how weather patterns play out here in June and July,” he says. “But, let’s face it, it is under more stress than we’ve seen in previous years.”

For late-planted soybeans, Hart says, the projected loss is not nearly as dramatic, only three percent below trend.