Market News

Corn up, expecting more planting delays

Soybeans were sharply lower on profit taking and technical selling, but still managing a week to week gain. The trade is watching weather and the probability of increased soybean acreage because of corn and spring wheat planting delays. Negotiations with China might not resume until late June, adding to the bearish atmosphere. The continued spread of African Swine Fever is also a bearish demand factor, while U.S. and world supplies are expected to be at or near record levels. Beijing did reportedly buy beans from Brazil recently, spiking their prices, but China’s tariff on U.S. beans will likely continue to keep trade to a minimum. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange now has Argentina’s bean crop at 56 million tons, with 77% harvested. Soybean meal and oil followed beans lower.

Corn was modestly higher on speculative and technical buying, cementing a strong bounce off Monday’s contract lows. Most forecasts had more rain into the coming week, including heavy amounts in parts of the central Midwest, pushing back planting even further in some key U.S. growing areas. There’s increasing talk of either outright acreage loss, along with record prevent planting totals because of those delays. Ethanol futures were higher. The industry is waiting for year-round E15 use and to see what role ethanol plays in proposed U.S. trade deals. Nothing’s in place yet, but some steps were taken Friday on the USMCA, which is expected to be a positive for ethanol demand.

The wheat complex was mixed, with all three major U.S. pits ending the week in positive territory. Kansas City was supported by hard red winter development concerns and Minneapolis expects more spring wheat planting delays. Still, the fundamentals are bearish, limiting the overall upside and pressuring Chicago, even with forecasts for more rain in soft red winter areas. The USMCA is expected to be a positive for U.S. wheat. That trade pact will still need to be enacted and NAFTA will have to be repealed by the three respective national legislatures. France’s AgriMer says 79% of that nation’s soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition.