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Hog futures tumble amid trade concerns

At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, live cattle closed lower on profit-taking, concerns about long-term demand, and the overall negative tone of the market.  Feeder cattle futures were lower on the same factors with added pressure from the day’s higher move in corn.  June live cattle closed $2.70 lower at $109.75 and August live cattle closed $1.97 lower at $106.92.  May feeder cattle closed $2.57 lower at $135.05 and August feeder cattle closed $3.72 lower at $143.10. 

Direct cash cattle trade is quiet with bids and asking prices not established just yet.  Showlists this week appear to be mixed – larger in Nebraska and Colorado, about steady in Kansas, but lower in Texas.  With the recent trend of early-week activity – we could see significant business develop as early as Tuesday.   

At Mid-session at the Oklahoma National Stockyards, receipts are up on the week and down on the year.  Compared to last week, feeder steers 600 to 650 pounds were $1 higher.  Heavier weights were mostly steady to $2 lower.  Feeder heifers were $1 to $5 lower.  Steer and heifer calves were steady to $4 higher on a limited test.  The USDA says demand was good and quality was average to attractive.  Feeder supply included 59 percent steers and 71 percent of the offering is over 600 pounds.  Medium and Large 1 feeder steers 701 to 736 pounds are $141.50 to $152.50 and feeder steers 802 to 848 pounds are $128 to $137.25.  Medium and Large 1 feeder heifers 653 to 696 pounds are at $126 to $136 and feeder heifers 724 to 749 pounds are $123 to $126. 

Boxed beef closed firm to higher on moderate to good demand and light to moderate offerings.  Choice closed $.47 higher at $221.58 and Select closed $1.43 higher at $208.89.  The Choice/Select spread closed at $12.69.   Estimated cattle slaughter is 121,000 head – up 2,000 on the week and 4,000 on the year. 

Lean hog futures closed sharply lower as the market is focused on trade uncertainty with China.  The US faces increased retaliatory tariff levels on products headed to China.  The lack of demand certainty combined with the large supply doesn’t give the market support to move higher. 

May lean hogs closed $.20 lower at $83.55 and June lean hogs closed $3.00 lower at $86.67. 

Cash hogs closed steady with moderate negotiated purchase totals.  The market continues to face pressure as the supply of ready hogs is ample and the demand picture remains unclear.  Trade talks with China have stalled and it doesn’t appear like any progress on the USMCA deal is any closer.  However, the fact that China’s still struggling with African Swine Fever and their eventual need for more pork to meet their protein needs has helped to keep cash hog prices from dropping significantly. Barrows and gilts at the Iowa/Southern Minnesota closed $.40 higher with a range of $81 to $84 for a weighted average of $82.81; the Western Corn Belt closed $.03 lower with a range of $72 to $83 for a weighted average of $81.52; the Eastern Corn Belt was not reported due to confidentiality; and the National Daily Direct was unchanged with a range of $72 to $83 for a weighted average of $79.93., 

Butcher hog prices at the Midwest cash markets are steady at $60. 

Pork values closed higher – up $2.08 at $88.24.  All of the primals were higher – led by hams, ribs, bellies, and picnics. Estimated hog slaughter is 461,000 head – down 9,000 on the week, but up 6,000 on the year. 

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