Market News

Soybeans, corn waiting for China, watching planting weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The trade is waiting to see what happens with China as a new round of negotiations starts Thursday. According to China’s customs ministry, soybean imports during February were 3.35 million tons, 907,754 of that U.S. beans, up sharply from January’s total of 135,814 tons, but still below pre-tariff levels. Most of the monthly total was from Brazil, 1.986 million tons, up 13% from February 2018. The continued spread of African swine fever is expected to limit demand at least somewhat. Beans are also watching weather in South America and getting ready for widespread U.S. planting. Some acreage switching away from corn and spring wheat to soybeans is likely, the question is how many acres. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn is also waiting to see what happens with China, watching weather in South America, and getting ready for widespread planting in the Midwest and Plains. Delays are probable in some key growing areas because of wet conditions and recent flooding. Ethanol futures were lower. The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly production and stocks numbers are out Wednesday and are expected to reflect the impact of flooding in Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota. In addition to more reported interest in U.S. corn, China might also be in the market for U.S. ethanol, DDGS, and sorghum.

The wheat complex was weak to modestly lower on fund and technical selling. The fundamentals are bearish, cancelling out at least some of the concerns about damage to winter wheat and probable spring wheat planting delays. USDA’s prospective planting report is out Friday at Noon Eastern/11 Central, along with quarterly grain stocks. Planting intentions have likely changed since the report was compiled. North Dakota, a prime spring wheat state, still has a lot of snow cover. The USDA says 52% of Kansas’ winter wheat is rated good to excellent with weekly national numbers resuming April 1st. Allendale says Egypt’s General Administration of State Customs is switching back to paying wheat suppliers after 180 days, instead of immediately. Egypt, the world’s biggest buyer of wheat, is tendering for an unspecified amount of milling wheat, while Ethiopia is in the market for 600,000 tons of milling wheat.