See our NCAA tournament region-by-region picks and Final Four predictions
The Lansing State Journal’s Graham Couch and Mike DeFabo predict the winner of each of the NCAA tournament's regions and the Final Four.
EAST REGION
Couch: Duke
The Blue Devils are capable of stumbling in the Sweet 16 to Virginia Tech or falling in the Elite Eight to Michigan State. Duke doesn’t shoot it well enough to avoid the possibility of trouble on a given day, even with its high-end NBA talent and the overwhelming athleticism of Zion Williamson. But if you’re picking that day to happen, you’re crazy. Virginia Tech beat the Blue Devils once without Williamson. And Duke’s up-and-down style fits what MSU does best with Cassius Winston. If you think Duke is an absolute mismatch for MSU, you’re also crazy. The world has been slow to completely buy into these Spartans. I think they’ll get to the regional final in Washington D.C., and do well when they get their shot.
DeFabo: Duke
A star point guard. A lock-down defender. A hall of fame coach. Michigan State sure looks like it has everything it needs for another deep NCAA Tournament run… everything except a favorable draw. The NCAA Selection committee did the Spartans an incredible disservice by sticking them in the same region as Duke. As good as Michigan State is, no one is keeping a healthy Zion Williamson from reaching the Final Four before this generational star hears his name called first overall in the NBA Draft.
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WEST REGION
Couch: Gonzaga
This is a fascinating region — with Michigan (the 2 seed), Texas Tech (3), Buffalo (6) and Nevada (7) all in one cluster. All of those teams could win this region. None of them are as complete as 1-seed Gonzaga. Until the Zags tripped up in the West Coast Conference tournament championship, they had destroyed the WCC all season. They’re the only team to beat Duke when the Blue Devils were truly at full strength. Gonzaga probably has the best front line in college basketball, headlined by Rui Hachimura, and a can lean on a terrific veteran point guard in Josh Perkins.
DeFabo: Michigan
Top-seeded Gonzaga is an offensive juggernaut. The Bulldogs rank first in offensive efficiency (1.25 points per possession) and have outscored opponents by almost 24 points per game. That potent offense showed signs of weakness, scoring just 47 points in its opening game of the West Coast Conference Tournament. And when the Bulldogs meet No. 2-seeded Michigan in the Elite Eight, the nation’s best offense will meet its match against the Wolverine’s second-ranked defense.
SOUTH REGION
Couch: Virginia
I know, I know, Virginia never lives up to its billing in the NCAA tournament. This is Virginia’s best team in the Tony Bennett era. De’Andre Hunter, who was injured and missed last year’s first-round disaster, gives the Cavs the sort of difference-making athlete they’ve lacked in other NCAA tournaments. This is also the weakest region. I don’t see a team that’ll truly threaten Virginia until the Elite Eight, when the Cavs could meet 2-seed Tennessee.
DeFabo: Virginia
Virginia made history last year as the first No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 in the opening game of the tournament (and in the process introduced us all to the most underrated mascot in college sports, the UMBC Labradors). This year, the Cavaliers will make the most of their No. 1 seed, sneaking past Kentucky and into the Final Four.
MIDWEST REGION
Couch: Houston
Houston, the 3 seed, has a tough road, with a likely second-round matchup against a talented but enigmatic Iowa State team. But I love this Cougars team. And I like them against Kentucky. They’ve got good athletes and loads of experience. I think North Carolina will have its hands full against Utah State in the second round. The Tar Heels are playing well, but this isn’t a quintessential Roy Williams team, with a true point guard who creates for his teammates and great length on the interior. I don’t see them putting four games together.
DeFabo: North Carolina
When the NCAA selection committee gave the ACC three No. 1 seeds, it made a clear statement about the stretch of the conference. Over the next couple weeks, the ACC regular season champs will make theirs. North Carolina is one of just four teams in the nation ranks in the top 10 in offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency (Virginia, Duke and Michigan State are the others). That elite ability on both ends of the court will propel the Tar Heels to the Final Four.
NATIONAL CHAMPION
Couch: Gonzaga
If we’re building an NBA team, I’m taking Duke. But we’re not. The best college basketball team in the country, I believe, is Gonzaga. The Zags aren’t devoid of NBA talent, either. They’ve got the size and depth on the interior to pester Zion Williamson and the scoring to keep pace. This matchup, unfortunately, would come in the semifinals.
DeFabo: Duke
Duke’s roster is flat-out loaded. The Blue Devils feature three players – Williamson, R.J. Barrett and Cam Reddish – who could easily be chosen in the first five picks of the NBA Draft. But first, those top five picks will conquer the Final Four and give Coach Krzyzewski another National Championship.
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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch. Contact Mike DeFabo at mdefabo@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @MikeDeFabo.