Market News

Corn firm, watching weather

Soybeans were modestly lower on fund and technical selling, after another up and down day. Nothing’s official, but it looks like trade talks between the U.S. and China won’t happen this month. No date for the resumption of discussions has been announced and several potential roadblocks, including intellectual property concerns, remain. China was the big weekly buyer for beans, but totals have fallen short of expectations. Still, that didn’t include the sales announced this Monday and last Friday. Development and harvest conditions generally look non-threatening for most of South America, aside from dry conditions in limited areas of Argentina. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased its soybean production outlook for Argentina to 54 million tons, compared to the USDA’s last guess of 55 million. New supply and demand estimates are out April 9th. Stateside, the trade is waiting to see what happens with corn and spring wheat planting and how many acres could be switched over to soybeans. Soybean meal was higher and bean oil was lower on the adjustment of product spreads.

Corn was modestly higher on short covering and technical buying. More snow has fallen in parts of the upper Midwest and Plains, leading to more concerns about planting delays. It is still a little early but could become a bigger issue if cool and very wet conditions persist into April. The USDA’s prospective planting and quarterly stocks numbers are out on the 29th. Weekly export numbers were neutral to bearish just over halfway through the marketing year. The USDA’s attaché in Mexico has 2018/19 corn imports at 16.7 million tons, climbing to 17.8 million in 2019/20. Domestic production for Mexico is pegged at 26.7 million tons this marketing year and 27.1 million next marketing year. Sorghum production is estimated at 4.7 million tons in 2018/19 with imports of 400,000, and production for 2018/19 is seen at 5 million tons with imports of 400,000. Ethanol futures were higher. Thursday, the Renewable Fuels Association expressed disappointment in the EPA allowing more petitions for Small Refiner Exemptions. Corn is also waiting to see what happens with China, Japan, and the European Union, in addition to waiting for some kind of advancement on the USMCA.

The wheat complex was mostly higher, with Chicago up and Minneapolis steady to firm, but Kansas City couldn’t hold onto its gains. High winds have been an issue in some winter wheat growing areas, while spring wheat areas have received more snow, with concerns about planting delays. Weekly export numbers were bearish with less than a quarter left in the 2018/19 marketing year. Japan bought 35,340 tons of U.S. food wheat, along with 52,960 tons from Canada and 28,065 from Australia. Tunisia purchased 92,000 tons of milling wheat and 42,000 tons of durum, while Algeria picked up 450,000 tons of milling wheat, all optional origin. The USDA’s attaché for Mexico has 2018/19 wheat production at 3 million tons, with 2019/20 at 3.1 million, while imports this marketing year are seen at 5.6 million tons, with next marketing year at 5.7 million.