News

USDA expects higher U.S. corn, wheat ending stocks

The USDA has raised domestic ending stocks projections for corn and wheat, while lowering the outlook a little for soybeans.

Corn was up on the month, with the USDA lowering its corn for ethanol use and export estimates, and also reducing the export expectation for wheat. Soybeans were down slightly on an increased crush use projection, with no changes to U.S. exports.

On the global side of the ledger, the USDA lowered soybean production and export estimates for Brazil and Paraguay but raised the bean export guess for Argentina. China’s soybean crush use outlook was down modestly on expectations for lower meal demand because of the spread of African Swine Fever. The USDA left corn production for Argentina and Brazil unchanged but did reduce export estimates for both countries.

The current marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat and the end of August for corn and soybeans.

The next set of supply and demand estimates is out April 9th.

Breakdowns of selected supply and demand tables:

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 1.055 billion bushels, compared to 1.010 billion in February and 1.099 billion bushels for 2017/18. The USDA raised imports by 5 million bushels to 145 million, taking total supply to 3.128 billion. Food use was lowered 5 million bushels to 965 million, putting domestic use at 1.108 billion bushels, while exports were slashed 35 million bushels to 965 million, for total use of 2.073 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $5.10 to 5.20 per bushel, compareed to $5.05 to $5.25 a month ago and $4.72 a year ago.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.835 billion bushels, compared to 1.735 billion last month and 2.140 billion bushels last marketing year. The UDSA lowered ethanol use 25 million bushels to 5.55 billion for domestic use of 12.39 billion bushels, and reduced the export outlook 75 million bushels to 2.375 billion, taking total use to 14.765 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3.35 to $3.75 per bushel, compared to $3.35 to $3.85 in February and $3.36 in 2017/18.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are pegged at 900 million bushels, compared to 910 million a month ago and 438 million in the previous marketing year. The USDA raised crush use 10 million bushels to 2.1 billion. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $8.10 to $9.10 per bushel, unchanged from last month and down from $9.33 last marketing year.

The USDA did raise the 2018/19 biodiesel use estimate for soybean oil to 8.2 billion pounds, slashing ending stocks to 2.01 billion pounds.

2018/19 world wheat ending stocks are seen at 270.53 million tons, compared to 267.53 million in February. Global production is pegged at 733.0 million tons, down slightly on the month, with lowered outlooks for selected Middle Eastern nations, North Africa, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Kazakhstan cancelling out increases for Argentina, Australia, and Russia.

2018/19 world corn ending stocks are projected at 308.53 million tons, compared to 308.53 million a month ago. Production was hiked to 1.101 billion tons with increased expectations for the European Union and the dozen smaller former Soviet states cancelling out a decline in South Africa. The USDA raised exports for Argentina, the dozen smaller former Soviet states, and Ukraine.