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China could be key to ethanol turnaround

An ethanol industry official says resolving the trade dispute with China would be great news for the ethanol industry.

Ethanol exports set a record of 1.7 billion gallons in 2018, even though China was out of the market for most of the year. Robert White of the Renewable Fuels Association says a resumption of sales to China would be huge.

“Two years ago, they were using 200-million gallons of ethanol. If we had that market right now, I think all the plants would be in the black—or close,” White says. “The stocks tipping point is right there, so I think we would quickly see some major impact.”

China is preparing to implement a ten percent ethanol mandate. White says that equates to two billion gallons of ethanol annually. “Even if we just fill 25 percent of it, that’s a half-a-billion gallons—and that would be a major shot-in-the-arm to this industry today.”

Brazil, Canada and India were the leading destinations for U.S. ethanol exports in 2018, accounting for 60 percent of exports.

Brownfield spoke with White at the Ethanol Issues Forum in Omaha.

AUDIO: Robert White