News

Not many surprises in delayed export numbers

During the government shutdown, there were frequent trade rumors China was buying not only U.S. soybeans and pork, but also corn and wheat. The USDA’s weekly export sales numbers covering January 4th through February 14th don’t reflect those rumors.

According to the USDA, a 6.5 million tons of U.S. soybeans were sold during that time period, about a million tons a week, and while China was the leading buyer at nearly 4 million tons, the total fell short of what many were expecting. More than 120,000 tons of pork were sold, but China only bought about 9,000 tons. China didn’t show up in corn, wheat, sorghum, or beef sales.

Physical shipments of corn remain ahead of what’s needed to meet USDA projections for the current marketing year, while soybeans and wheat trail expectations because of increased competition.

The 2018/19 marketing year runs through the end of May for wheat, the end of August for corn, sorghum, and soybeans, and the end of September for soybean products.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out March 8th.

Wheat came out at 3,574,800 tons (131.4 million bushels). Nigeria purchased 444,400 tons and unknown destinations bought 400,600 tons, with a handful of small cancellations. At this point in the 2018/19 marketing year, wheat sales are 789.4 million bushels, compared to 787.9 million in 2017/18. Sales of 244,100 tons (9.0 million bushels) for 2019/20 delivery were mainly to Nigeria (76,600 tons) and the Philippines (57,000 tons).

Corn was reported at 6,056,500 tons (234.8 million bushels). Mexico picked up 1,427,400 tons and Japan purchased 1,348,800 tons, with a couple of small cancellations. For the marketing year to date, corn sales are 1.510 billion bushels, compared to 1.478 billion this time last year. Sales of 29,200 tons (1.1 million bushels) for 2019/20 delivery were primarily to Guatemala (15,600 tons) and El Salvador (11,600 tons).

Sorghum totaled 252,000 tons (9.9 million bushels). Spain bought 155,100 tons and Japan picked up 75,400 tons, while unknown destinations canceled on 67,900 tons. Cumulative sorghum sales are 28.7 million bushels, compared to 209.5 million a year ago.

Soybeans were pegged at 6,531,800 tons (240.0 million bushels). China purchased 3,922,500 tons and Egypt bought 602,500 tons. Unknown destinations did cancel on 957,700 tons, but most of that was switched to other buyers. So far, this marketing year, soybean sales are 1.356 billion bushels, compared to 1.640 billion last year. Sales of 378,600 tons (13.9 million bushels) for 2019/20 delivery were mostly to unknown destinations (145,000 tons) and China (128,000 tons).

Soybean meal came out at 1,468,800 tons. Ecuador picked up 172,100 tons and Colombia purchased 171,200 tons, partially offset by a handful of cancellations, led by unknown destinations with 74,300 tons. Meal sales this marketing year are 8,378,500 tons, compared to 7,803,100 a year ago. Sales of 60,500 tons for 2019/20 delivery were mainly to Ecuador (60,000 tons).

Soybean oil was reported at 92,100 tons. South Korea bought 65,000 tons, including 15,000 tons initially slated as heading to unknown destinations, and Colombia picked up 14,500 tons. 2018/19 soybean oil sales are 498,100 tons, compared to 496,000 in 2017/18.

Net beef sales totaled 90,100 tons. The listed purchasers were Japan (26,800 tons), South Korea (22,100 tons), Mexico (13,700 tons), Hong Kong (9,900 tons), and Canada (6,000 tons).

Net pork sales totaled 122,900 tons. The reported buyers were Mexico (32,200 tons), South Korea (19,800 tons), Japan (16,800 tons), Canada (9,700 tons), and China (8,900 tons).