PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers' most impactful change over the past month isn't the addition of Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter. It's the emergence of Jake Layman.
Layman's development into a sharp-shooting, quick-cutting, rim-rocking basketball master has the potential to help the Blazers achieve their goal of reaching the second round of the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Layman's stretch of above-average production began 45 days ago, on January 4, in a 111-109 loss to the Thunder. In that game, Layman came off the bench and scored 11 points, making 5 of his 7 shot attempts in 12 minutes.
It was a rare appearance by Layman. In the previous 19 games, Layman had fallen out of the Blazers' rotation, averaging just 4.3 minutes per game, including 11 games in which he didn't play at all. This was after Layman began the season as a starter, averaging about 16 minutes a game through the season's first 19 games. Layman was solid, if unspectacular during that stretch, averaging 5.1 points while shooting 52 percent from the field and 38 percent from the 3-point line.
Since January 4, though, Layman has been spectacular. In the past 19 games, he's averaging 12.6 points and shooting 57 percent from the field and 39 percent from the 3-point line, while showing an elite ability to cut along the baseline and convert at the basket.
Layman has been even better since the trade-deadline acquisition of Hood. At the time of the trade, with Hood expected to play major minutes, Stotts made it sound like Layman's minutes might get squeezed.
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Hood has played a lot, averaging 23 minutes per game since joining the Blazers. But Layman's minutes haven't gone down; they've actually increased. In the past five games, Layman is averaging 28.8 minutes per game, and he's making those minutes count, averaging 16.2 points and shooting 64 percent from the field and 45 percent from the 3-point line.
Instead of Layman getting squeezed, Evan Turner and Seth Curry have seen their minutes cut since Hood arrived. Both are playing about five fewer minutes per game.
Surprisingly, Maurice Harkless' minutes have remained about the same, despite a glaring lack of production. Over the past five games Harkless has played 19.4 minutes per contest, but he's scoring just 4.6 points per game and shooting poorly (37.5 percent on field goals; 22.2 percent on 3-pointers).
Layman has also been part of the Blazers' most productive five-man rotation over the past month. The lineup of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jake Layman, Al-Farouq Aminu and Jusuf Nurkic has outscored opponents by 30.0 points per 100 possessions over the past 15 games.
It makes calls for Layman to replace Harkless in the starting lineup seem sensible, even obvious. The five-man unit of Lillard, McCollum, Harkless, Aminu and Nurkic is still the Blazers' most-used five-man unit over the past 15 games, but has been ineffective, getting outscored by 9.1 points per 100 possessions.
Seems like it's time for a change.
Here's a look at how the Blazers fared in the latest batch of NBA power rankings:
Sports Illustrated: Blazers rank No. 8 (up 1)
What they wrote: If the Trail Blazers can avoid the slide down the standings they seem to be destined for and instead pick up more crucial wins like Thursday’s over the Warriors, they might avenge last year’s first-round sweep. But if they do fall, they might be looking at another 86-game season. — Khadrice Rollins
ESPN: Blazers rank No. 9 (down 1)
ESPN's power rankings this week were a "special edition," in which the NBA teams were divided into contender tiers. The Blazers were ranked ninth, just outside the "NBA Finals contenders" tier and at the top of the "Don't forget about us" tier. The teams ranked above them, deemed good enough to be included in the tier of NBA Finals contenders are the Rockets (8), Celtics (7), 76ers (6), Nuggets (5), Thunder (4), Raptors (3), Bucks (2) and Warriors (1).
What they wrote: The Blazers enter the post-All-Star break in a precarious position. Portland will have to be nearly perfect to catch up to Golden State, Denver or Oklahoma City in the top three West playoff spots. The Blazers currently own the fourth seed, which comes with home court in the first round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Portland has four teams breathing down their necks trying to take it away. — Marc Spears
CBS Sports: Blazers rank No. 10 (no change)
What they wrote: The Blazers got marginally better at — and then after — the trade deadline. I'm not sure if adding Rodney Hood and Enes Kanter changes this team's ceiling all that much — they're a good team that's often very good but never to be confused with great — but they definitely got better. Last year, this team was only one game above .500 on Jan. 15, then Damian Lillard went absolutely bonkers with an MVP-level second half, and the Blazers finished 27-12. — Reid Forgrave
The Athletic: Blazers rank No. 10 (down 2)
What they wrote: If you’ve been on the internet and perused Portland Trail Blazers discussions over the last couple years, then you know about the Cult of Jake Layman. Internet cults can be tricky, especially in figuring out if a fan favorite is actually good or just the kind of quirky fans love to root for. To put it in simple terms, Layman has a lore about him that makes you want to watch more of him. On the season, his 8.1 points per game and 37.4 percent from 3-point range are modest numbers. Jump into the deep end of true shooting percentage and his 63.6 percent is pretty remarkable on low usage and attempts. Layman’s athleticism and effort keep him as a galvanizing force on the court.
Over the last 12 games, the Blazers have gone 8-4 with big wins over Utah and Golden State. During that 12-game stretch, a lineup of Layman joined by Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Jusuf Nurkic has been obliterating teams. In 53 minutes together over these 12 games, the Blazers have outscored their opponents by 41.1 points per 100 possessions with this lineup. The offense is operating at 142.7 points per 100 possessions with a 74.7 true shooting percentage. This is a small sample size, but the legend of Jake Layman continues to pick up steam. Pretty soon, Portland will have deemed him a deity worthy of statues all over the Pacific Northwest. — Zach Harper
Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. He's also the co-host of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast (listen here). You can reach him on Twitter @jaredcowley.