NCAA tournament bracketology: The three most underrated teams in the projected field

Editor's note: This story has been updated with the latest NCAA tournament projections through games of Feb. 14.

The bracket's seeding line can be deceiving.

For a multitude of reasons, NCAA tournament teams will be seeded below their worth yet have teams favorable to go on deep runs in March Madness. It might be an unsatisfactory non-conference schedule. Or it might be the conference's overall lack of strength hurting a team's ranking. Or it might be one ugly loss that stains an otherwise impressive tournament portfolio. 

Sometimes, the selection committee's seed might sink a dark horse team, which is often the case for many No. 5 seeds that have fallen to No. 12 seeds. But nevertheless these underrated teams are worth illuminating because a tournament résumé reveals much more than what the committee determines at a seeding line and is often a window into a team's tournament potential. 

Here's a look at three of the most underrated teams on the bracket right now:

► Houston (projected No. 3 seed): Of all the teams that got under-seeded by the selection committee in the NCAA's top-16 seed bracket reveal, the Cougars (24-1) have a case considering their one loss was on the road against a Quadrant 1 (top 75 road) opponent in Temple. Granted, the Owls are currently the first team out of the projected field, so if they go dancing it makes a better case for Houston's lone blemish. Point is: Houston should and could be at the No. 2 line. Kelvin Sampson's team has a top-five ranking in the NET (the NCAA's new metric replacing the RPI) but is largely hurt by a non-conference schedule of 134 and an American Athletic Conference that doesn't exactly enhance the portfolio on a nightly basis. For instance, Houston's win over Connecticut on Thursday night counted as a Quadrant 2 road win since the Huskies rank No. 78 -- just outside the top-75 requirement for away victories.

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► Kansas State (projected No. 5 seed): How is a team that leads the country's best NET conference a No. 5 seed? The Wildcats (19-5, 9-2 Big 12) have an interesting portfolio to say the least. A non-conference strength of schedule in the 100s plays a role, as does an NET score of 26. But it's two Q2 losses — to Tulsa and Texas A&M — the ultimately stain this résumé in a unique way. Take one of those away and KSU is potentially looking at the No. 3 line. What's impressive about the Wildcats of late is their ability to win games they shouldn't lose on the road (at Iowa State, Texas and Baylor) and it always helps to beat a Q1 team like Kansas. There's more room to move up in the Big 12 than any other league, so keep an eye on Bruce Weber's veteran team that's much better than last year's surprise Elite Eight finisher. 

► Maryland (projected No. 6 seed): The Terrapins' win over Purdue on Tuesday builds a case for this team to move up on the seeding line. That gives Maryland's profile four Q1 victories to help offset one Q2 loss and another particular glaring Q3 (teams 76-160 in NET) loss to Illinois. It's that type of résumé stain against a dangerous team that puts a team like Maryland two spots lower on the bracket. Outside of that one bad loss, Mark Turgeon's team has a top-25 overall strength of schedule (thanks to the power of the Big Ten) to go along with a top-50 non-conference slate. A team that has an NET score of 21 figures to move up, and that'll certainly be the case if the Terps can knock off No. 2 seed Michigan on the road Saturday. 

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► No. 1 seeds: Duke, Tennessee, Virginia, Gonzaga

► Last four in: North Carolina State, UNC-Greensboro, Clemson, Indiana. 

► First Four out: Temple, Butler, Nebraska, Central Florida

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• Others considered for at-large bid (in no particular order): Florida, Providence, Creighton, Oregon, Georgetown, Davidson, Saint Mary's, Utah State, Arkansas, Furman. 

•  On life support: Arizona, Oregon State, Texas A&M, Miami (Fla.), UCLA, Connecticut, DePaul, Missouri, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Fresno State, Notre Dame, Boston College, Georgia, Liberty, Xavier, Saint Louis, San Francisco, Memphis, Southern California, South Carolina, Georgia State, East Tennessee State, Pittsburgh, Dayton, Northwestern.

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Multi-bid conferences: ACC (9), Big Ten (9), Big 12 (8), SEC (7), Big East (4), American (2), Ohio Valley (2), Pac-12 (2), Southern (2).

Leaders or highest RPI from projected one-bid conferences — (23 total): VCU (Atlantic 10), Vermont (America East), Lipscomb (Atlantic Sun), Montana (Big Sky), Radford (Big South) UC Irvine (Big West), Hofstra (CAA), Old Dominion (Conference USA), Northern Kentucky (Horizon), Yale (Ivy), Quinnipiac (MAAC), Buffalo (MAC), Norfolk State (MEAC), Loyola-Chicago (MVC), Nevada (Mountain West), St. Francis-Pa. (Northeast), Bucknell (Patriot), Sam Houston State (Southland), Prairie View A&M (SWAC), South Dakota State (Summit), Texas State (Sun Belt), New Mexico State (WAC), Gonzaga (WCC). 

• Transition schools ineligible to participate: Cal Baptist, North Alabama.

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Note:  Mostly all statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NCAA's new NET rankings are also considered; that was rolled out at the beginning of 2018-19. 

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his sixth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past five March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.