Climate change in NJ: Grading Phil Murphy's first year

Inch by inch, over the next several decades, the Atlantic Ocean is going to claim more of the barrier islands and low-lying coastal areas.

Monsoon-like rainstorms will become more commonplace, as will heat waves in the summer. The Pinelands will be under attack by tree-killing bugs from the South, and commercial fishermen will have to adapt to hunting new species of fish. 

This is how climate change will manifest in New Jersey, a predicted reality that Gov. Phil Murphy, unlike his predecessor, acknowledges and has pledged to both resist and prepare for.

"Unless we do more (to counter climate change), the question isn’t whether we’ll see another superstorm like Sandy, but simply a question of when,” Murphy said during a speech in Highlands two weeks after his inauguration. “As the densest state in the nation, we can ill-afford to keep our heads in the sand when it comes to climate change.“

One year into his term, environmentalists and proponents of climate action say Murphy has acted with an urgency that matches his public statements. However, there are some areas where they see stunted progress, such as using technology to reduce energy demand and addressing the carbon emissions from the cars and trucks that clog New Jersey's busy highway system.

"I think there was a lot of ambition and a lot of commitment, and it’s a challenge to do everything, but that this administration has met a lot of those challenges," said Ed Potosnak, executive director of the New Jersey League of Conservation Voters. "They’ve been walking and chewing gum."

That's the consensus sentiment from the green lobby, which has enjoyed a level of access and influence that it was never afforded during the eight years under former Gov. Chris Christie.

But not every advocate feels that way. Notably, the New Jersey Chapter of the Sierra Club recently announced a grade of "D" for Murphy's environmental progress.

On the specific issue of climate change, NJ Sierra Club director Jeff Tittel told USA TODAY NETWORK New Jersey that the governor has fallen flat.

"What we’ve seen is a record that is mixed at best," he said. "Disappointing is the word I would use." 

Murphy has made bold promises to reform how we generate electricity in New Jersey in order to slow the accumulation of greenhouse gases, but has been silent on what to do about the creeping sea level and coastal development, Tittel said.

"I am very worried that this administration is more concerned with making speeches on climate change than doing anything about it," he said.

The Governor's Office pushes back on that characterization, saying that Murphy in his first year fulfilled an impressive set of climate promises, including:

• Prepared to rejoin in 2020 the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a successful cap-and-trade program with nine other Northeastern states, and set a target to reduce carbon emissions in New Jersey by 36 percent in 10 years.
• Established an aggressive clean energy mandate that requires all the electricity sold in the state to be sourced from renewable fuels by 2050 and 50 percent by 2030.
• Created an offshore wind subsidy that hopes to attract at least 3,500 megawatts of capacity — enough power for 1.5 million homes — by 2030.

"All of those things in one year is massive," said Mary Barber, who runs the New Jersey Clean Energy program for the Environmental Defense Fund.

Murphy devoted little time to the topic during his State of the State speech in Trenton on Tuesday. Although he took a few moments to talk about offshore wind, Murphy spent more time stumping on NJ Transit fixes and corporate tax breaks.

"Today, New Jersey is leading the nation in fighting climate change, from promoting clean energy alternatives to rejoining RGGI," he said, in his only direct reference to the climate change predicament.

But climate activists say that Murphy's messaging on the issue has been effective in marshaling public opinion.

“The attitude is the right one," said Dale Bryk, an energy and climate change expert for the Natural Resources Defense Council. "We are going to demonstrate why this change is the absolute best package for New Jersey — for the environment, for jobs, for the economy."

The Governor's Office told the Network that 2019 would be an active year for the administration on the climate front, including the creation of a master plan for coastal protection from rising seas and enabling a new subsidy for solar power.

Still, some of those same people wonder if he couldn't move faster on certain initiatives, such as energy efficiency.

Many view energy efficiency as the linchpin of any serious effort to switch to carbon-free electricity. These new sources of generation — wind and solar — require an initial investment that is ultimately paid for by the consumer through inflated electricity costs.

Finding ways to reduce the amount of electricity used can help defray some of that extra upfront spending that clean energy requires of residents and business owners.

“The Governor’s Office still voices its commitment, but it's January and we have not seen movement on energy efficiency,” Bryk said.

New rules on energy efficiency are coming this year, according to the Governor's Office.

There is concern within the environmental movement that Murphy already may have hobbled the typical ratepayer's ability to afford clean energy by agreeing to bailout the nuclear power industry in May.

The average household will pay $30 to $40 more per year to prop up Public Service Enterprise Group's nuclear plants in the state after the company claimed it wasn't able to compete on a level-playing field with natural gas-fired power.

With a subsidy framework in place for offshore wind power and something similar being developed for solar this year, will New Jersey soak ratepayers with higher electricity costs and turn them off from supporting clean energy?

"There may be a point where the Legislature and the governor or whoever gets scared of rate shock," Tittel said. "(The nuclear subsidy) is money that could have gone to renewable energy."

The Murphy team notes that if the nuclear plants would have shut down that would have opened up a larger market for natural gas here in the short term. 

"Nuclear power is the largest source of zero carbon energy for the state and an important piece of our transition to 100 percent clean energy," reads a statement from Murphy's spokeswoman.

It's not just the nuclear plants that are causing drama, but also the discussion of new fossil fuel infrastructure in New Jersey, including pending proposals for five new power plants and eight natural gas transmission pipelines.

"The state should use its full authority and deny permits for projects that don’t meet New Jersey’s strict environmental standards, because there is greater urgency with each passing day of climate inaction on the part of the Trump administration," said Tom Gilbert, campaign director of ReThink Energy NJ and New Jersey Conservation Foundation, in a statement.

Projects like those would run counter to the clean energy goals in a very direct way, but they would also — like the nuclear plants — siphon away investment from wind turbines and solar fields.

The Murphy administration has been publicly silent on ventures including the North Bergen Liberty power plant and the Southern Reliability Link pipeline, but it acknowledged to the network that it is considering blocking these projects.

"The Governor’s Office, (the state Department of Environmental Protection), and Attorney General’s office are reviewing the state’s authority to institute a moratorium on new fossil fuel infrastructure," reads a statement from Murphy's office. "We take the request very seriously and want to ensure any decisions are informed by the law and the best available science."

But even the governor's supporters have grumbled that his climate approach has been too focused on electric generation and does not do enough to address where the bulk of carbon emissions originate: the 39,000 miles of roadways that criss-cross New Jersey.

"A lot of the focus has been on the electricity sector, but the biggest contributor in NJ continues to be fossil fuel use in the transportation sector — roughly 45 percent of the state’s emissions," Marjorie Kaplan, head of the Rutgers Climate Institute, told the Network. 

Under Murphy, the state has committed to reaching 330,000 zero-emission vehicle registrations by 2025 through the Multi-State ZEV Task Force. Some $10 million from the Volkswagen settlement will go toward building charging stations around the state.

The state also pledged last month to join the Transportation and Climate Initiative, another regional effort similar to the ZEV task force and RGGI, that has broad goals of slowing carbon emissions on our roadways by reducing traffic congestion, improving public transit and encouraging electric car usage.

Russ Zimmer: 732-557-5748, razimmer@app.com, @russzimmer