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Brazil soybean crop could shrink by as much as 16 million metric tons

Projections for the Brazilian soybean crop continue to fall off as dry conditions persist.

U.S. Commodities president Don Roose (rose) says expectations have gone from as high as 128 million metric tons to 116 million.

“But I tell ya, it won’t take a lot over the course of the next 15 to 20 days, if we go back to this hot, dry pattern like we had the last 30 days, you could see a crop that could sink back down into that 112, 113, 114 area.”

He tells Brownfield that scenario would limit downside risk for soybeans, but the upside potential is still capped by huge supplies globally.

“When you’re talking about the U.S. 955 million carryout, it could be down maybe to around 800 million metric tons under the right circumstances. That’s still a big number.”

Roose says the ingredients for a significant move higher are fewer U.S. soybean acres combined with a weather problem in 2019, and major developments in trade negotiations with China.