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Ag Economy Barometer: Farmers expect beef and dairy herd to shrink

Farmers surveyed in the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer predict the size of beef and dairy herds are likely to decline in 2019.

Eighty-three percent of respondents said they expect the dairy herd to shrink and more than 60 percent said the beef herd will shrink in 2019.

“And I think that reflects the mixed view out there with respect to profitability in the beef sector at the cow-calf level,” he says. “So, less optimism about expansion and more interest perhaps in contraction in the beef herd than what we saw this time last year.”  

But, Purdue University’s Jim Mintert says farmers are more optimistic about the pork industry.

“And then when you look at the pork side, pretty consistent with what USDA reported on the December Hogs and Pigs report,” he says. “People are expecting to see some expansion continue to take place in the pork sector.”

The USDA will update information about the beef cow and dairy cow inventories at the end of the month.

The ag economy barometer is a monthly national survey of 400 U.S. ag producers..

Audio: Jim Mintert, Purdue University