MSU football, basketball made-up mailbag: Why can't MSU land a top 10 recruiting class?

Lansing State Journal

This week’s Michigan State football and basketball made-up mailbag tackles some of life’s great questions.

Kidding.

Let’s get started.

Why can’t Michigan State football ever land a top 10 recruiting class? — Joe in Franklin, Tennessee

Given the winning that’s gone on in recent years, it’s a fair question. Short answer: It’s hard to become a new-money college football power. If you look at the top 10 classes this year according to 247sports and Rivals — Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Oregon, Clemson, Texas, Michigan, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Notre Dame — there are only two non-traditional football powers among them: Clemson and Oregon. Becoming a new-money college football behemoth is difficult. MSU has done nearly as well at trying to do this as anyone.

The Spartans’ 36-5 run over three seasons did lead to a 2016 class that had a school-record 11-four star prospects. Of those 11, only Mike Panasiuk, Justin Layne, Naquan Jones and Cam Chambers are still with the program, entering what should be their senior and redshirt junior seasons.

We all know what happened to that class — the off-field turmoil, the transfers. The guy who helped bring some of them in, Curtis Blackwell, is no longer with the program, either. Not all bad kids. The wrong mix at the wrong time, in some cases.

That class was ranked No. 17 and 18, respectively, by Rivals and 247sports. Beginning with Mark Dantonio’s third class in 2009, MSU’s recruiting classes have always been ranked somewhere between there and about 40 and, often, about where the Spartans’ latest class ranks, No. 26.

Dantonio and his staff have made a mockery of recruiting rankings with many of the prospects they’ve uncovered and developed. This question from Joe could be framed differently to other programs that regularly bring in top 20 classes: “Why don’t you win more, considering the talent you supposedly lure?”

I’m not going to suggest that MSU couldn’t do better in recruiting. There are programs out there that land more four-star kids with brands that are no more enticing and resources that are comparable.

And I wonder if the story of MSU’s 2016 class had turned out differently, if the classes that followed wouldn’t have been a bit more heralded. MSU won its way onto a bigger recruiting stage and then endured a year from hell.

Recruiting rankings matter. There’s no question there’s a correlation between the highest-rated recruits and the best programs. But they aren’t everything. Here are a few names from Michigan State’s 2010 class, ranked 22nd by 247sports and 30th by Rivals: Darqueze Dennard, Jeremy Langford, Le’Veon Bell, Kurtis Drummond, Marcus Rush, Mike Sadler, Isaiah Lewis, Travis Jackson, Will Gholston, Tony Lippett and Max Bullough. It’s enough to put the recruiting analysis services out of business.

And enough to trust that, on the recruiting front, Dantonio and Co., by and large, know what they’re doing.

MSU football coach Mark Dantonio puts on a hat from a high school of one of his recruits during his 2017 signing day press conference.

How close to set in stone is the MSU basketball playing rotation? Can you project the minutes for each player this February in the middle of Big Ten play? — Gabe

I think it’s closer to set than most years at this point. Tom Izzo put it bluntly on Sunday night: “I’ve got some really good veterans that have earned the right to play, that have earned the right to make a few more mistakes than somebody else.”

This is one of the best collections of veterans Izzo’s had. And it’s also a freshman class that, while I think will prove to be one of Izzo’s better groups over four years, comes in without a top-50 recruit. That’s a combination that’s going to lead to a lot of junior and senior minutes this season.

Freshman Aaron Henry is entrenched in the rotation and will remain there. His impact is most essential against more athletic opponents. Foster Loyer could be part of the regular playing group eventually, too, in part because he can provide a position in need — backup point guard.

Let’s pick a random game in February, say Feb. 12 at Wisconsin. Here’s how I see the minutes being dispersed:

Cassius Winston: 34
Joshua Langford: 32
Matt McQuaid: 25
Kenny Goins: 25
Xavier Tillman 23
Nick Ward: 22
Kyle Ahrens: 20
Aaron Henry: 13
Foster Loyer: 6

That’s the nine-man rotation this season, I think, with Thomas Kithier or Marcus Bingham Jr. being used if foul trouble strikes and Gabe Brown perhaps being called on for instant offense in a desperate situation. Brown is the one player not seeing time now that could perhaps force his way on the floor, if he can prove to Izzo he’ll provide more than shooting. But he’s got a lot of proven guys in front of him right now and a classmate at a similar position who provides more of what MSU needs.

Michigan State's Cody White celebrates in the end zone after his touchdown run against Rutgers during the fourth quarter on Saturday, Nov. 24, 2018, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.

What happens if MSU scores 40 points in the Red Box Bowl against Oregon and the offense dazzles? — Dave. Err, I mean Dan. It’s Dan.

It would signify an awareness that something had to change and an understanding of what to change — and an ability to get it done with time to prepare. And it would give Mark Dantonio some public relations cover if he decides to keep his offensive staff intact and go after it again next season with this same crew of offensive players, hoping for better health and line play.

I’d still think the offensive staff would be well-served to add a new voice, someone with experience in different offenses. But I do think there is perhaps a different reaction if MSU’s offense suddenly hums against Oregon than if it clunks along as it did against Rutgers and Nebraska. Another dud like that, even with injuries, and I think it would be hard not to make changes, let alone unwise.

Michigan State freshmen from left, Marcus Bingham Jr., Thomas Kithier, Foster Loyer, Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown laugh while being photographed during the team's media day, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2018, in East Lansing, Mich.

If MSU played most of the game against Green Bay with an all-freshman lineup of Foster Loyer, Gabe Brown, Aaron Henry, Marcus Bingham Jr. and Thomas Kithier, what’s the final score? — Gabe again

Same score, 104-83. Green Bay on top instead. The Phoenix are a team full of transfers, high-major and junior college, etc., seasoned players in their early 20s. Some of MSU’s freshmen might have a higher ceiling than some of Green Bay’s veterans, but if we were to pick a top five between MSU’s freshmen and Green Bay’s roster for tonight, I’d start with Green Bay’s Sandy Cohen III and JayQuan McCloud before I got to Aaron Henry.

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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.