News

USDA raises 2018 beef, poultry production outlooks

The USDA expects 2018 to end on a strong note for beef and poultry production.

The forecasts for beef, broilers, and turkey were up from November, with higher slaughter paces contributing to the increases, while lowering the outlook for pork because of a slower than expected kill rate. Annual prices for steers, barrows and gilts, and broilers were higher, based on demand and late year price trends, while the turkey price guess was slightly lower than last month.

Based on recent data, the USDA maintained the 2018 beef and pork export outlooks and raised poultry.

Per capita consumption numbers were steady for pork and turkey, fractionally higher on beef and fractionally lower for chicken.

Preliminary 2018 totals for red meat and poultry are out in late January.

Breakdown of 2018 domestic supply and demand tables:

2018 U.S. commercial beef production is seen at 26.939 billion pounds, compared to 26.914 billion a month ago, with an average steer price projection of $116.91 per hundredweight, up $.12. Imports were down 10 million pounds at 3.004 billion, with the USDA expecting reduced demand from Australia, specifically. Exports and ending stocks were steady at 3.19 billion pounds and 685 million, respectively. Per capita consumption is seen at 57.1 pounds per person, 0.1 higher.

2018 U.S. commercial pork production is estimated at 26.31 billion pounds, compared to 26.32 billion last month, with an average barrow and gilt price guess of $45.86 per hundredweight, $.38 higher. Imports, exports, and ending stocks were unchanged on the month at 1.059 billion pounds, 5.984 billion, and 525 million pounds, respectively. Per capita consumption was also steady at 50.6 pounds per person.

2018 U.S. federally inspected broiler production is projected at 46.67 billion pounds, compared to 42.649 billion in November, with an average price estimate of $.975 per pound, $.001 higher. Imports were steady at 137 million pounds, while exports were hiked 140 million pounds to 7.056 billion. That lowers ending stocks 25 million pounds to 925 million. Per capita consumption is seen at 92.1 pounds per person, down 0.3.

2018 U.S. federally inspected turkey production is pegged at 5.89 billion pounds, compared to 5.875 billion a month ago, with an anticipated average price of $.802 per pound, $.006 less than the last guess. Imports were unchanged at 21 million pounds and exports were raised 10 million to 596 million pounds, with ending stocks unchanged at 300 million. Per capita consumption held at 16.2 pounds per person.