Market News

Soybeans, corn down, despite recent harvest delays

Soybeans were sharply lower on fund and technical selling. The trade was watching U.S. harvest activity, expecting mixed week to week progress. The USDA says 91% of U.S. soybeans, compared to the five-year average of 96%, with all 18 of the top production states trailing their respective averages. Most forecasts for this week generally look better. There’s a lot of uncertainty about trade and China ahead of the G20 in Argentina later this month and the expected meeting of President Trump and China’s President Xi. The White House sent conflicting signals last week and the recent Asia-Pacific Economic Conference ended without a final communique after China refused to sign the document. U.S. Vice President Pence and President Xi reportedly talked trade during the conference. Soybean meal and oil were lower, following beans, with bean meal taking the bulk of the pressure on uncertainties about Chinese feed demand, in part because of expected rationing due to the lack of trade with the U.S., but also because of the continued spread of African Swine Fever. Additionally, Argentina’s bean meal sales have slowed down because of poor crush margins. The trade is also continuing to watch South American planting. Some reports have Brazil as much as 80% complete, well ahead of schedule, but progress in Argentina has been slowed down by of rain.

Corn was modestly lower on fund and technical selling. Corn was also expecting mixed harvest progress in the USDA’s weekly update. As of Sunday, 90% of corn is harvested, compared to 93% on average. Illinois, North Carolina, and Tennessee have officially wrapped up, so 13 of the top remaining 15 top production states are behind the usual pace. South Korea bought 138,000 tons of 2018/19 U.S. corn and while export inspections were mixed, this marketing year’s pace remains ahead of the USDA projections. Weekly export sales numbers will be out Friday at 8:30 Eastern/7:30 Central, delayed a day by Thanksgiving. Ethanol futures were modestly lower. Corn continues to watch planting and development conditions in South America.

The wheat complex was mostly lower on fund and technical selling. Wheat was watching development conditions in the U.S. and abroad. Stateside, according to the USDA, 93% of winter wheat is planted, compared to 97% normally this time of year, and 81% has emerged, compared to 88% on average. 56% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, up 2% on the week. 33% of the crop is called fair and 11% of winter wheat is rated poor to very poor. Internationally, forecasts through the end of the year, are mixed, with DTN projecting dry conditions in France and Spain, against good rainfall in the Black Sea region. For now, the fundamental outlook remains bearish, with updated supply and demand numbers out December 10th. It’s early, but at least some adjustments to Australia’s crop and Russia’s exports are possible in this next round of numbers. DTN says Saudi Arabia bought 495,000 tons of milling wheat from an unknown origin.