Michigan State football at Nebraska: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Cornhuskers.

1. Rocky or Brian, Part IV?

This is becoming a weekly question — who starts at quarterback for Michigan State, junior Brian Lewerke or redshirt Rocky Lombardi? And it’s a significant question, because the answer changes the game. If it’s Lewerke again, MSU will count on its defense to hold the Huskers under 17 points and hope its own offense can manage to top that number. If it’s Lombardi, the Spartans are perhaps risking an extra turnover or mishap, but also might have a shot at scoring in the mid-20s. 

If it’s Lewerke, who’s been playing through a shoulder injury, the Spartans have to be able to run the ball, like they did at Maryland. Nebraska allows 194 yards on the ground per game. In the Big Ten, only Illinois and Rutgers are worse. Every Big Ten team other than Northwestern and Minnesota has rushed for at least 188 yards and averaged 5.1 yards per carry against the Huskers. If MSU can do something like that, it can win with Lewerke playing as he is. If it can’t, it can’t.

2. How good is Nebraska?

Through the first five games of the season, the Cornhuskers were an awful team on both sides of the ball, a situation exacerbated by an injury to freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez. Since that 0-5 start, they’re 3-2, with 50-point outbursts in lopsided wins over Minnesota and Illinois and 30-point efforts in road losses by five points or less at Northwestern (in overtime) and Ohio State. In other words, these are no longer September’s Huskers. But this is still a team that’s allowed at least 28 points in every Big Ten game. Compare that with MSU, which has only allowed 29 points once. 

Nebraska’s 449 yards allowed per game are second-worst in the Big Ten. This is a defense that can be had and leaks like a sieve, allowing nearly 23 first downs per game, third-worst in the Big Ten. We’ll see if MSU can take advantage of it. 

On the other side of the ball, however, Nebraska has it rolling, tallying at least 450 yards in each of its last seven games with a truly balanced attack, paced by Martinez and running back Devine Ozigbo (958 yards rushing, 7.5 yards per carry). That 450-yard performance came against Ohio State two weeks ago. MSU, last week, gained 274 yards against the Buckeyes. 

This matchup should truly be telling of the state of both teams.

3. Another big ask of MSU’s defense

The Spartans are leaning hard on what’s become an elite defense, No. 1 in the country against the run (76.5 yards per game), No. 3 in the Big Ten in points allowed (19.7 per game). Against Penn State, Purdue and Maryland, that worked. MSU leaned a little too hard on that unit against Michigan and Ohio State. It’s unclear whether MSU’s recent formula will work against Nebraska. The Huskers have an offense that’ll test the Spartans but also a flawed defense that might allow MSU to enjoy the modest successes it did against Purdue and Maryland. Either way, the Spartans are again asking their defense to be special. Anything less probably won’t lead to victory. 

4. Will a new playmaker emerge?

MSU’s offense is desperately in need of something new, someone new. Not necessarily entirely new, but to provide an element we haven’t seen. Could a La’Darius Jefferson or Jalen Nailor have a day that grabs headlines? This would be the perfect time for it. Nebraska’s defense is vulnerable and MSU’s offense is feeble. It could use a playmaker to emerge unexpectedly, to give it a couple explosive plays, to make moving the ball less of a grind. Jefferson arrived with loads of hype as a dynamic athlete. Nailor has shown flashes of being exactly that. Maybe it’s someone else. MSU just needs it from someone, period.

5.  Misery from Mother Nature

It’s expected to be miserable in Lincoln at kickoff — a high of 31 degrees, with a mix of snow and rain and 20 mph winds. Fun stuff. It’s one of those days when you’ve really got to want to be out there. The conditions will be limiting in the passing game for both teams. If Brian Lewerke starts at QB, it’ll test the velocity his injured shoulder can generate. The weather will be a factor — in play-calling, perhaps turnovers. It’s hard to say which team difficult weather favors. It’s usually the team that can run the football. But I don’t know which or if either team will be able to.

Prediction

This is a hard game to predict without knowing which quarterback the Spartans plan to start and whether they’ll be able to run the football, as they could against Maryland but haven’t been able to otherwise. I believe Mark Dantonio to be a sensible man. I think he knows, based on the information at hand, that Rocky Lombardi should start this one. We’ve seen the boost that he provides this MSU team in recent weeks. We know this Spartan defense can stand up to almost anything. 

Make it: MSU 27, Nebraska 21

RELATED:

• Couch: Dantonio's QB decisions derail Michigan State's chances against Ohio State
• Michigan State football made-up mailbag: What's left at stake this season?

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.