Tammy Baldwin's win - the largest in a top race in Wisconsin in 12 years - offers road map for 2020
When Scott Spector joined Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin's re-election effort in February 2016, the campaign had $250,000 in the bank and a clear view of the fight ahead.
"We knew from the outset how tough of a race we would have," said Spector, the campaign manager.
On Tuesday night, the fight ended with the electoral equivalent of a knockout, as Baldwin defeated Republican challenger, Leah Vukmir, by nearly 11 percentage points.
Baldwin got 55.4 percent of the vote, according to unofficial returns.
She had the highest vote percentage of any candidate for governor or senator in Wisconsin since Democrat Herb Kohl was re-elected to his fourth term in the U.S. Senate with 67.3 percent in 2006.
Democrats looking to run against President Donald Trump in 2020 might want to pay attention to what Baldwin did.
The road to the White House will likely go through Wisconsin.
"The thing about Wisconsin is there is no silver bullet to winning," said Spector, who has been involved in state politics for about 20 years. "I remember after 2016, people said you have to do better in western Wisconsin if you're going to win, you have to do better in Milwaukee County if you're going to win. You can't ignore the Fox Valley and you can't ignore the folks up north."
"And the answer to that question, is yes," he added. "All of that is true. But you have to put together a true statewide campaign and you have to campaign in every corner of the state. Wisconsin voters care about someone who is authentic, someone who cares about them, someone who is on their side.
"Even if they don't agree with you on every issue, they are looking for someone who will do those things. And they will give you the latitude, I don't agree with you on those issues but I respect you."
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From his perch with the Baldwin campaign, Spector got a close-up view of the key races in 2016, not just Trump's win over Democrat Hillary Clinton but Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson's victory against Democrat Russ Feingold.
The Baldwin team would leave nothing to chance, building out a campaign that focused on the traditional pillars of fundraising, organizing and messaging.
In all, the campaign raised more than $31 million during the election cycle from more than 100,000 donors. In 2017 and 2018, 54 percent of individual donations came through online, grassroots donors.
More than 80 full-time organizers were on the ground and deployed early via the state Democratic Party's coordinated campaign.
The Baldwin campaign said the field operation knocked on more than 1.1 million doors, made more than 1.7 million phone calls and completed more than 23,000 volunteer shifts.
But perhaps most of all, the campaign's biggest move was going to places that had turned decisively against Democrats in 2016, including western Wisconsin and the Fox Valley.
Looking at the map, Spector said: "We always had Outagamie County and Kenosha County as the guideposts of Wisconsin. Those two are swing counties for us."
Baldwin and Vukmir each got 50 percent of the vote in Outagamie County and Baldwin overwhelmed Vukmir in Kenosha County by 57 percent to 43 percent.
The team started early and never let up. The first attack ad against Baldwin was launched in March 2017.
"We knew we had to define Tammy very early on and our opponent early on, regardless of who it was," Spector said.
The Republican primary was a tough battle between Vukmir, a state senator from Brookfield, and U.S. Marine veteran Kevin Nicholson. The Baldwin campaign launched digital ads against both Republicans during the primary and compiled information on their political stances that could be used in a general election.
"We had a plan of action," Spector said. "We knew how to run against both of them. We saw what both of their narratives would be, what both of their strengths would be, what both of their weaknesses would be. We were prepared to face either of them."
Spector said Baldwin's team respected both Vukmir and Nicholson.
"The fact that health care ended up being the dominant issue of this campaign was a huge advantage," he said. "Tammy got into politics because of her health care story. Tammy wanted to talk about health care."
Baldwin's campaign focused on Vukmir's support for repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act and votes she took in the Legislature against bills requiring insurance companies to provide coverage for oral chemotherapy and cochlear implants for children.
"For us, it was Tammy Baldwin is on your side," Spector said. "Tammy Baldwin is looking out for you and Leah Vukmir is looking out for the insurance companies. Everything that we did played into that."
To reach voters outside the Democratic strongholds of Milwaukee and Madison, Baldwin emphasized "Buy American" provisions, while also focusing on manufacturing and agriculture.
"Showing up, spending time, building relationships matter," Spector said.
And Baldwin's team never took its foot off the gas, despite polls showing her leading by 10 points for much of the last two months.
"There was never a point in time where we were not concerned, where we were not running 110 miles an hour," Spector said. "You can't be from Wisconsin, experience the 2016 cycle and think the race is over."