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Economist says Brazil could break corn record, impact U.S. exports

An agricultural economist says corn exports are strong now, but that might change.

Dr. Bill Tierney with AgResource says there’s likely to be some strong South American competition in 2019.  “We think that we’ve seen the harvest lull in corn.  We think that there’s very good demand for U.S. corn.  We’re a little bit concerned about the potential size of the South American crops, particularly in the case of Brazil.”

He says when the U.S. had drought conditions in 2012, Brazil was the largest corn exporter, and two years ago in 2016, Brazil exported a record 35 million metric tons.  Tierney tells Brownfield conditions are right for another possible Brazilian yield record.  “Some analysts think that because the Brazilian crop is being planted at a record pace, because of very good soil moisture to get the crop started, that the Brazilian second corn crop will be planted record early which is nearly always beneficial for yields.”

Tierney says it is possible Brazil could raise 100 million metric tons and export 45 million tons compared to the 25 million tons this year.  “And, that would take a big bite out of potential U.S. corn exports.”

Tierney says if the U.S. can book most of its export sales between now and next June when Brazil would harvest, there could be a good upside to U.S. corn prices.