Lessons learned from presidential bid launched Scott Walker on quest for third term
GREEN BAY - Scott Walker had a problem.
His presidential run was over, his campaign had more than $1 million in debt and his poll numbers were at an all-time low.
That moment in September 2015 was a time for reflection — and action.
“In that time I had at the end of the presidential, I just — I realized how much I enjoyed being governor,” Walker said in an interview.
He has come back since then, but whether he bounces back all the way will depend on voters on Nov. 6. During this campaign he has faced political headwinds and a devastating personal blow, the death of his pastor father, Llewellyn Walker.
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When he dropped his presidential bid, Walker was less than a year into his second term and didn't know if he would run again. But whatever he decided to do, he said he knew he had to reconnect with the people of Wisconsin.
Over the next year, he held 77 listening sessions around the state — gatherings where he would talk to voters and local officials and jot down issues important to them on a whiteboard.
"I’ve just got to immerse myself," he said of his thought process. "I’ve got to be not just in the Capitol, but I’ve got to go out and I’ve got to re-engage with people the way I had before."
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The events were closed to the public — prompting criticism from Democrats — but consisted of diverse groups of people, including those who had signed petitions to recall him from office in 2012.
Walker said the listening sessions helped him learn about concerns he incorporated into his next state budget — such as more funding for rural broadband, local roads and mental health care. (Democrats contend Walker has not done enough in these areas, even with those budget increases.)
“It kind of gave me a sense of, ‘Hey, there’s more I want to do here,’ ” Walker said of his stops around the state. “And I think that’s a good chunk of what energized me to run again.”
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The effort helped bring Walker’s poll numbers back up, but it also gave his opponents a new line of attack. In recent months, Democrats have been hammering Walker for using state planes at a cost of more than $800,000 since he ended his presidential campaign.
When Walker dropped out of the presidential race, his standing with voters was at its nadir in Marquette University Law School polling — 36 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable. Over the next year and a half, his favorability rating crept up to 48 percent, where it stood just before his 2014 re-election.
“The number-one thing is every time the governor sees a challenge, and it can be a daunting challenge, I think it actually really motivates him,” said longtime Walker adviser Keith Gilkes. “I think at those times you see the best in him.
“He retails the hell out of places,” he said. “It’s just good, old-fashioned shoe leather work.”
In a little over a year after he dropped out of the presidential race, Walker also paid off his campaign debt.
Raising money to pay off debt for a campaign that has ended is the toughest political fundraising job, said Gilkes, and many presidential candidates fail to pay theirs off after they drop out.
“He went in there and made the case (to donors) — ‘I honor my debts,’ ” Gilkes said of Walker. “He wanted it off his head so he could focus on his job.”
In his element at Lambeau
On a recent Sunday, Walker made his way through the crowd outside Lambeau Field, shaking hands and snapping selfies with tailgaters.
Fans sipped beers and grilled brats as “The Bears Still Suck” blared from a boombox. Wearing jeans, work boots and a Packers jacket, Walker was in his element and treated like a hero by some.
“I like all of his thoughts on every issue as far as the Second Amendment, the troops, free speech,” Alex Herzog of Green Bay said of Walker. “It’s just totally opposite from the Democrats right now. They’re out of control with all these witch hunts.”
A six-piece marching band made its way through the crowd and briefly surrounded Walker as he clapped along and pumped his fist in the air.
“Hey, Scott, you going duck hunting next weekend?” a fan yelled. “I’ll meetcha out there!”
Seeing Walker at Lambeau, one wouldn’t know he’s in the political fight of his life running for a third term against Tony Evers, the state schools superintendent. As Walker sees it, that’s part of his problem — his supporters haven’t fully realized he's in danger and aren’t launching into the do-or-die efforts to get out that vote they did in his past bids.
A Marquette poll in September showed Walker was 5 points behind and he said that has helped his backers begin to recognize he’s in trouble. A more recent poll shows him a virtual tie, with Walker at 47 percent and Evers at 46 percent.
Walker has the vote of Terrence Ford of Oshkosh and he may be able to win over Ford's wife, Shalonda.
“I used to be a Democrat, but now I think I might be a Republican,” Terrence Ford said. “I’m not sure. We’re like, we want to keep our money.”
Shalonda Ford said she voted for Walker in 2014 and there is an 80 percent chance she will do so again. She hasn’t made up her mind because she doesn’t think Walker has done enough on education, she said.
“I just want to see more for our schools,” she said.
Incites strong feelings
Walker is a love-him-or-hate-him political figure and nowhere is that more evident than in his social media feed.
In August, Walker tweeted a quote from the Bible. One of the first responses called him a “#FakeChristian.” When Walker that month used Twitter to praise volunteers for helping with storm damage, one critic within minutes responded, “You’re a weasel, delete your account.”
Walker stopped reading comments on his social media feed about five years ago, he said.
“I think it’s the Kardashian-ism of America,” he said.
“The Kardashians are kind of famous because they’re famous and the way they stay famous is by constantly saying more shocking things either on TV or on social media. Early on we saw it on cable news on either end of the spectrum. The voices you hear on any cable news shows are the ones that are most out there. And then I think over the years I think it's creeped into social media. You know, people say things they would never dream of saying (to someone’s face).”
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The online comments can be difficult for friends and family, said Lisa Mauer, who has known Walker since the 1990s and was appointed by him to the Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. board in 2011.
Walker's friends "hurt for him" when he gets harsh criticism, but the governor remains unflappable, she said.
“He’s very centered and he’s able to put that on a perspective where he can let it go," she said. "It doesn’t gnaw at him.”
Walker has always remained calm when facing adversity and criticism, said his brother, David.
"I think he got the best from my mom and my dad," he said. "My dad was a great listener, a great speaker for churches and my mom was a great, you know, calm force. She sees the good in everyone.”
Walker has long sparked strong feelings in a polarized state. His supporters are devoted to him. His opponents are equally committed to unseating him. These hardened views were cemented in place early in his first term when he curtailed collective bargaining for public workers and his opponents responded with massive protests and forced his recall election in 2012.
He has navigated the situation effectively, winning with 52 percent in 2010, 53 percent in 2012 and 52 percent in 2014.
With Donald Trump in the White House and a fired-up Democratic base, this year's race could go differently. Walker saw the risk earlier than many other Republicans and began warning his supporters about a potential blue wave nearly a year ago.
Independent voters are one risk for Walker. They’ve swung to the governor in the past, but his standing with independents was very slow to recover after his popularity took a dive in Wisconsin in 2015 and 2016. And in his race against Evers, the governor has consistently trailed among independents in a variety of public polls.
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Winning a third term is hard, and Walker is quick to note the path may be tougher for him than others because this will be his fourth election since 2010 because of the recall.
Of late, Walker has been telling voters he won’t run for a fourth term if he wins this fall. In an interview, he said he wouldn’t run for president in 2024.
If he wins next month, he would end his term at the beginning of 2023, shortly after turning 55.
In discussing what he might do after that, Walker invoked his father, who was ill at the time and died on Oct. 7, a week after the interview.
“A long, long time ago, when I was a kid and I’d fill in for my dad once in a while, some of his church members ... were surprised I didn’t go into the ministry,” Walker said. “So who knows, maybe I’ll see what God’s calling is.”
“I don’t know that it would be that specifically but maybe there’s some calling related to that, some sort of ministry.”
Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel staff contributed to this report.\