Indiana Election 2018: Is Watson too liberal for the 9th district?

Liz Watson, the Democrat running for Congress in Indiana's 9th District, is facing an uphill battle against Republican Rep. Trey Hollingsworth in a red district that voted for President Donald Trump by nearly 27 points in 2016.

Watson has all but avoided saying anything negative about Trump — or even his controversial Supreme Court pick — during her campaign, and has advertised herself as a fifth generation Hoosier who wants a fair economy for hard working men and women.

But she has criticized the Republican tax reform for cutting taxes for the rich, calls climate change the “greatest threat facing humanity,” advocates for the legalization of medical marijuana at a federal level and supports universal healthcare coverage.

She’s also played up her opponent’s geographical history: Hollingsworth wasn’t born in Indiana and only just moved to the district prior to the 2016 campaign.

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“I think that the district is ready for somebody that's going to fight for us,” Watson said. “…Trey Hollingsworth is out of touch with southern Indiana.”

Watson is running unapologetically on Democratic ideas — far from the approach moderate Democrat Sen. Joe Donnelly has taken in a red state.

She also spent two years working as the labor policy director for Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives.

And on Friday, she welcomed Sen. Bernie Sanders — one of the more left-leaning Senators — to Bloomington for a rally.

Because of that, Hollingsworth has accused Watson of standing with Democrats Chuck Shumer and Nancy Pelosi. 

National Democrats see Watson as one of their best chances to win back a Congressional seat in Indiana during this cycle. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee labeled it as “a race to closely watch.” Democrats hold only two of Indiana's nine Congressional seats. 

Watson has managed to out raise Hollingsworth in each of the last five quarters, raising more than $1.9 million compared to Hollingworth's more than $1.4 million when not including personal loans. Hollingsworth has tremendous personal wealth to draw from and hasn't ruled out loaning his campaign more money. 

FiveThirtyEight gives Watson a 25 percent chance of winning — the best chance of any Indiana Democrat running against an incumbent — and Crystal Ball still says the district is "Likely R."

While national experts say a win for Watson is unlikely, most say the ninth district has the best chance at going blue in Indiana.

"The pendulum may have swung to the highest point in 2016 and is coming back," said Andy Downs, a political science professor at Purdue University Fort Wayne. "It's a district where Democrats have been successful before more recently than say the 3rd district...Momentum is moving in the right direction."

The district

The ninth district stretches across 13 counties, from the southern suburbs of Indianapolis to the northern Indiana suburbs of Louisville, and contains large swaths of rural land.

The region has voted for Democratic candidates in the past, but has been solid red ever since it was redistricted following the 2010 census.

It is also undeniably diverse and home to one of the more liberal cities in the state: Bloomington, where Watson grew up and currently resides. When political operatives look at the 9th district, "They see Monroe County where Democrats do really well," Downs said.

Hollingsworth isn’t concerned about Watson’s chances in the district.

“If (Watson) actually got outside Bloomington and actually talked to Hoosiers around the district, she would recognize that her Nancy Pelosi values and her voting for the Nancy Pelosi agenda is not something that the district wants to see,” Hollingsworth said.

Hollingsworth is a businessman, born in Clinton, Tenn., about 30 miles northwest of Knoxville, but said he's lived all over for both his and his wife's education and careers. He said he's focused on renovating old manufacturing facilities so they can be functional again. 

His goal: to parlay that business experience into better public service.

As a freshman lawmaker, he voted for the tax reform plan and to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but he’s most proud of his votes to invest more money into national security and to “empower this economy by cutting all the red tape.”

Moving forward, he says a main priority should be reforming the immigration system.

He's also one of the wealthiest members of Congress; Roll Call labeled him the 12th richest, with a net worth of over $50.1 million.

During Hollingsworth’s first run for Congress, his dad started a PAC for his son, spending more than $1 million on advertising. Meanwhile Hollingsworth loaned his own campaign $2.7 million.

In 2016, his Democrat opponent Shelli Yoder and other Democratic groups latched on to the idea that Hollingsworth moved to Indiana just to buy a seat in Congress, nicknaming him Tennessee Trey. One of the most memorable ads featured Hollingsworth and his dad throwing darts to pick where the younger Hollingsworth would run for Congress.

Still, the messaging wasn’t enough. Hollingsworth beat Yoder by more than 13 points, after outspending her by a 2-to-1 ratio.

Only Monroe County voted overall for Yoder.

Laura Merrifield Wilson, a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis, said Watson has momentum in the district — but so did Yoder.

 “Watson has a unique set of challenges, and Yoder wasn’t successful despite not having those challenges,” Wilson said.

Hoosier roots

In 2016, Yoder had the advantage of having extensive Hoosier roots, as a small-town girl from a Mennonite family in Shipshewana and a former Miss Indiana.

Unlike Yoder, Watson hasn’t spent her whole life in Indiana. That’s made it easier for Hollingsworth to shut down any attacks on his own geographical faults.

“My opponent continues to trot this out, try to make this election about geography,” Hollingsworth said. “It’s funny because she's been a lobbyist in D.C. for the past 10 years… she’s been literally a part of the swamp for the last 10 years.”

Watson no doubt has Hoosier roots. She was born in Bloomington, and later got married at the Indiana University auditorium. But until last year she lived just outside of D.C. in Maryland, and she still owns a rental property there. She said she spent much of her time traveling back and forth because her parents still lived in the state.

She moved back in 2017, and now notes that her two kids attend the same elementary school she did growing up.

“This is exactly where I grew up,” Watson said. “My family is here; my kids are here. they go to my elementary school. I'm Hoosier through and through and I'm proud of it.”

And Hollingsworth she said, is a “$58 million net worth guy who thought it would be fun to buy a seat in Congress.”

Hollingsworth, on the other hand, had no family living in Indiana before he moved to the state. He does, however, reside in Jeffersonville, near his wife’s parents who live just across the border. And he said he had done business in Indiana for years before officially moving to the state. 

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At the start of the year, he sold Alexin, an aluminum casting plant he opened a decade ago in southern Indiana for at least $5 million — one of his major ties to the state.

"Obviously (his biography) didn't hurt him two years ago and I think its neutralized by (Watson's) lack of tenure in the area," Downs said. 

Still, one of Watson's key talking points is that Hollingsworth is out of touch with Hoosiers. She said he hasn't publicized public town hall meetings — though Hollingsworth says he has. And he so far has refused to debate Watson. 

"I think it's really important that we get back to having a representative who actually cares about us and is going to show up and listen to us," Watson said. "So that's what I've been doing."

She also pointed to Hollingsworth's vote for Trump's tax reform as an example of how he's focused on those outside of the district. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, the richest Hoosiers received the highest tax cuts, and in 2027 the poorest Hoosiers will watch their taxes increase.

An analysis from the Center for American Progress Action Fund showed that Hollingsworth could have the largest tax break of any member of Congress, somewhere between $670,000 and $4.57 million. 

"My question is, is Wall Street in our district? I don't think so," Watson said. "I have not seen a single skyscraper in Nashville or Corydon or Marengo or Salem or Scottsburg." 

Hollingsworth sees the reform differently: the average Hoosier is saving money. The average tax change in Indiana is a savings of $1,870, according to the same group.

He also said he has been talking to constituents, making over 500 phone calls to Hoosiers every single week, and knocking on over 400 doors each week.

"We've been able to do a lot of this because Hoosiers have cried out and said, 'Trey listens and Trey works and Trey will get something done for us,'" Hollingsworth said.

Pundits say Hollingsworth likely win the election, but Watson is gaining ground.

The most recent sign: after the third quarter fundraising numbers were released Monday, FiveThirtyEight increased Watson's chance of winning from 22 percent to 25 percent.

It's a small increase. But for Watson, it's also a small victory.

Call IndyStar reporter Kaitlin Lange at 317-432-9270. Follow her on Twitter: @kaitlin_lange.

Other Congressional races in Indiana

►First district: Democrat Rep. Pete Visclosky is running against Republican Mark Leyva, a self-employed carpenter. FiveThirtyEight gave Leyva less than a .1 percent chance of winning. 

►Second district: Republican Rep. Jackie Walorski is running against Democrat Mel Hall, a businessman and former minister. FiveThirtyEight gave Hall just under a 5 percent chance of winning. Hall outraised Walorski in the most recent quarter, but most of that money came from his own pocket.

►Third district: Republican Rep. Jim Banks is running against Democrat Courtney Tritch. FiveThirtyEight gives Tritch a 0.3 percent chance of winning. However, she did out raise Banks in the most recent quarter.

►Fourth district: Former state Rep. Republican Jim Baird is facing off against Democrat Tobi Beck for control of the open Congressional district. Both are veterans. FiveThirtyEight gives Beck a .2 percent chance of winning. 

►Fifth district: Republican Rep. Susan Brooks is running against Democrat Dee Thornton, a former business executive and athlete. FiveThirtyEight gives Thornton a 1.5 percent chance of winning. 

►Sixth district: Republican Greg Pence, the brother of Vice President Mike Pence, is attempting to win his brother's former seat in Congress. FiveThirtyEight gives his opponent Democrat Jeannine Lee Lake, less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning. Lake is the editor and and publisher of The Good News, a free publication that highlights the achievements and notable events of minorities and religious leaders in Muncie.

►Seventh district: Democrat Rep. André Carson is running against Republican Wayne "Gunny" Harmon, a Marine veteran. FiveThirtyEight gives Harmon less than a 0.1 percent chance of winning. 

►Eighth district: Republican Rep. Larry Bucshon is running against William Tanoos, a Terre Haute lawyer who focuses on access to healthcare and financial security for disabled clients. FiveThirtyEight gives Tanoos a 0.5 percent chance of winning.