Unemployment rates are falling in Southwest Florida. How low can they go?

Leaves may not be falling in Southwest Florida.

But jobless rates continue to drop across the region as the busy season edges closer.

Lee County had the lowest unemployment rate in the five-county region in September — at 2.9 percent. That was down from 3.6 percent in August, according to a report released Friday by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity.

Collier County wasn't far behind with a rate of 3.3 percent last month. That compared to 4.2 percent a month earlier.

"Holy smokes. How low can we go? Amazing. Amazing numbers," said Jim Wall, communications director for CareerSource Southwest Florida, an agency that matches job seekers with employers. 

More:Gov. Rick Scott delivered jobs, but nearly half of Floridians still struggle

Here are the jobless rates in the region's three other counties for September: Charlotte (3.5 percent); Glades (3.9 percent) and Hendry (6.6 percent).  

All counties saw noticeable drops in their unemployment rates over the month, leading Wall to question whether it had anything to do with Hurricane Irma, which hit in September of last year.

"I have been scratching my head. Are we still in hurricane recovery? What in the world is going on?" he asked rhetorically.

CareerSource held a regional job fair on Thursday at Florida Southwestern State College in Fort Myers. Nearly 80 businesses participated, but only about 800 job seekers showed up, when 1,200 to 1,500 were expected, likely a reflection of the tight labor market, Wall said.

Having such low unemployment rates is concerning, he said.

"Where are we going to find highly skilled candidates going into season?" Wall asked.

Some area employers  have put off hiring for the busy season, which traditionally runs from November to May, because of Southwest Florida's water woes. Toxic algal blooms — chiefly red tide and blue-green algae – have chased some visitors away and hurt hotels and other businesses tied to tourism from charter boat captains to restaurants.

More:Even in Florida's booming economy layoffs happen, which shows why diverse economy is needed

Hiring for season picking up

The past few days, Wall said he's noticed more hoteliers feeling more confident about season. They're starting to give their employees more hours and to think about seasonal hiring again, he said.

"Maybe what we should hope for is a real cold winter up north," he said. "So people will come here for our labor force," Wall said.

Michael Dalby, president and CEO of the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce, said he hears complaints from businesses almost daily about the tight labor market and shortage of skilled workers.

Employers, he said, are getting more creative with scheduling and more efficient and productive with their business. Some, for example, are incorporating more technology in their day-to-day operations, such as adding self-ordering and self-checkout capabilities.

One persistent challenge in the Naples area is the lack of affordable housing, which can make it tough to recruit new employees from outside the region, Dalby said. But county commissioners recently approved a handful of recommendations from county staff that could create lower-cost homes — from providing regulatory relief for certain housing applications to increasing the number of units that can be built per acre in redevelopment areas and along transit corridors.

"They were little steps, but positive steps," Dalby said. "But we would like to see more." 

Christopher Westley, director of the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University in south Fort Myers, said Lee County's unemployment rate hasn't been lower than 3 percent since May 2006.

Collier County's rate hit 3.1 percent in April and May the past two years, he said, but before that it hadn't be lower than 3.5 percent since May 2007. 

More:Lee, Collier, Charlotte unemployment stays low in August; Hendry's highest in Florida

In an "inflationary boom"

"It comes back to the tendency of our region to overheat during boom periods and to over correct during bust periods," Westley said."Right now we're in an inflationary boom. That's my take."

Over the past year, the Fort Myers area has added 17,100 new private sector jobs. The Naples area hasn't created nearly as many — adding 9,100, according to the Department of Economic Opportunity. 

In the Fort Myers area, the industries with the most growth over the year were construction (+4,800) and trade, transportation and utilities (+4,000).

In comparison, the highest growth in the Naples area came from construction (+3,600) and leisure and hospitality (+3,000).

"Construction, which is one of the largest employers in Collier was up 27.5 percent. And that's going to continue to be the case through the expansion. It's going to grow," Westley said.

More:Jobless rates are falling in Collier, but so are the number of jobs

Labor shortages in construction remain a critical issue in the region, state and nation.

The Lee Building Industry Association and Lee County School District will host a career day trade show with 40 construction-related companies for middle, high school and adult students on Wednesday. It's part of a larger effort to drum up more interest in the construction trades and help fund more construction curriculum in Lee County schools, said Phillip Ford, Lee Building Industry Association's executive vice president.

There are plans to make the trade show an annual event, with hopes of exposing kids to careers and opportunities they don't know about including internships and apprenticeships.

"Most of our issues are long-term issues," Ford said. "We have issues finding people who have skills. You really have to have specific skills to be a plumber or an electrician." 

Construction leads the way

In September the region added 28,800 jobs over the year (+6.8 percent). Construction led the way (+8,700), followed by leisure and hospitality (+6,400).

Retail remains a big industry in Southwest Florida. Lee added thousands of jobs in the sector over the year (+3,700), but Collier didn't see the same kind of growth (+100).

Florida businesses have created more than 1.6 million jobs since December 2010. In September, they added 17,700 private sector jobs. 

More:Collier County's job losses blamed on Hurricane Irma, other factors

In a press release, Gov. Rick Scott called the drop in the unemployment rate "great news for Florida families."

"While our state responds and recovers from the devastation of Hurricane Michael, I know that we will rebuild stronger than before," he said. "I will never stop working until every family in the Panhandle has recovered from this storm, and I will keep fighting to make sure that every Floridian has the opportunity to get a great job." 

Statewide, Florida's unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent last month, the lowest since February 2007.