Michigan State football vs. Michigan: Scouting report, prediction

No. 6 Michigan Wolverines at No. 24 Michigan State Spartans

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 24 Michigan State (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 6 Michigan (6-1, 4-0)

Kickoff: Noon, Saturday, Spartan Stadium, East Lansing

TV/radio: Fox; WJR-AM (760), WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 7.

Injury report

Michigan State

Out: P Jake Hartbarger (right leg, season); CB Tyson Smith (illness, season). Doubtful: LG David Beedle (left arm), WR Cody White (left hand), CB Josiah Scott (left leg). Questionable: WR Darrell Stewart Jr. (left ankle), WR Felton Davis III (hip), WR Jalen Nailor (undisclosed), WR Laress Nelson (leg), WR Cam Chambers (thumb), WR Brandon Sowards (lower body); RB LJ Scott (leg), RG Kevin Jarvis (right leg), CB Josh Butler (undisclosed), DE Dillon Alexander (right leg), DT Mufi Hill-Hunt (knee), TE Noah Davis (undisclosed), LB Ed Warriner (undisclosed), LB Chase Kline (undisclosed), OL James Ohonba (undisclosed).

Michigan

Out: P Brad Robbins, DB Benjamin St-Juste, DE Luiji Vilain. Questionable: DE Rashan Gary, WR Tarik Black.

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Scouting report

When Michigan State has the ball

The Spartans' run game came to life late en route to upsetting Penn State on Saturday, getting 123 yards behind an offensive line that played just five players and changed blocking schemes. Brian Lewerke got picked off for a seventh time this season when the ball bounced off Cam Chambers’ heavily bandaged hand. However, Lewerke also nearly had a few others intercepted, including one on which WR Felton Davis III turned into a defender to knock the ball away. And then Lewerke and Davis went on the offensive, with the QB targeting Davis 18 times, completing eight passes for 100 yards and two touchdowns. Who knows which receivers are healthy enough to play this week? Can RB LJ Scott return from injury? MSU ranks sixth in the nation and first in the Big Ten in time of possession at 34:27 per game, impressive considering the injuries the Spartans have been dealing with on the offensive line.

When Michigan has the ball

The Spartans gave up a season-high 205 rushing yards against Penn State, but they still remain No. 1 in the nation in run defense at 62.3 yards per game. Two runs accounted for 126 of those yards, and MSU held the Nittany Lions to 2.6 yards per carry on their other 30 attempts. The Spartans’ secondary also limited senior QB Trace McSorley to 37 yards rushing and 19-of-32 passing for 192 yards, which was MSU’s second-fewest passing yards allowed this season. Mark Dantonio’s team still ranks 117th in pass defense (286.3 yards allowed per game), but the Spartans are up to 37th in total defense (348.7) and 41st at 22.3 points allowed per game.

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Know the foe: Michigan

Defense dominating

U-M enters Saturday ranked No. 2 in total defense at 238 yards allowed per game and ninth in scoring defense at 15.4 points. DEs Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich are stellar stalwarts on an imposing front four, combining for five sacks — though Gary has missed the past two games with a shoulder injury. Devin Bush continues to shine at middle linebacker, leading U-M with 3.5 sacks and 45 tackles as the Wolverines rank 15th nationally against the run (108.9 yards allowed per game). And CB Lavert Hill and S Josh Metellus anchor a deep secondary that gives up a nation-best 129.1 yards passing per game.

Higdon shines

Running back Karan Higdon is having an impressive senior season so far, including five straight 100-yard rushing performances. The 5-foot-10, 202-pounder ranks third in the Big Ten at 114.5 yards on the ground per game. Higdon has a team-high six touchdown runs and is averaging 5.7 yards on his 120 carries. In three games against MSU, Higdon has 24 carries for 111 yards but has not scored a touchdown.

Growth spurt

Much was made of the transfer of QB Shea Patterson from Ole Miss and the subsequent NCAA decision to allow him to play immediately. The junior from Toledo has been solid, throwing for 187.3 yards per game while completing 69 percent of his 158 passes for 1,311 yards. Patterson has 10 TD passes to just three interceptions, and he has been sacked 11 times. The Spartans have not allowed a passing touchdown against the Wolverines since the fourth quarter in 2011 – a total of 369 minutes and 49 seconds of game time.

Two cents

Ground improvements

The team which has run for more yards has won 43 of the last 48 MSU-Michigan games. And without Scott, one of the top all-time running backs in program history, MSU has turned to two players who were not full-time at the position in high school. Both played pivotal roles at Penn State behind the altered offensive line. True freshman La’Darius Jefferson ran 12 times for 60 yards, including a 27-yard carry that was the longest by a Spartan running back this season. And sophomore Connor Heyward added 100 yards of offense running, catching and throwing the ball – getting 26 yards on a fourth-down fake punt and then throwing a 36-yard pass to Chambers a few plays later.

Wide margin

Lewerke’s options at wide receiver dwindled throughout MSU’s upset of  Penn State. Three of the Spartans’ top six receivers — White, Stewart and Nailor —stayed at home with injuries. Chambers hurt his thumb on the pass from Heyward, missed the rest of the first half, then could not catch a Lewerke pass that bounced off his heavily bandaged hand and did not return. Brandon Sowards appeared to hurt his leg on a punt return early in the third quarter and did not return. Then on MSU’s last drive, Davis injured his hip leaping and falling to the sideline, and Laress Nelson appeared to get his leg crunched a play later. Both Davis and Nelson were on the field for the Spartans’ final offensive play, Davis’ TD catch from Lewerke.

Prediction

Michigan 20, Michigan State 19: The Spartans aren't just looking to salvage their season after their upset of Penn State. This is a chance for them to maintain control of their Big Ten title game destiny, which more than likely will come down to Saturday’s winner and defending champion Ohio State. A potentially rainy afternoon appears to favor the Wolverines and their run game, where MSU has struggled. However, it will be tough for either team to build much offensive momentum against these defenses. The Spartans escaped their mistakes last week, but one turnover against U-M ends up the difference in a slugfest from the Big Ten's days of yore.

Podcast previewing the game.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @chrissolari.