Michigan State vs. Michigan: 5 factors and a prediction

Graham Couch
Lansing State Journal
One of the big questions going into this game is whether injured Michigan defensive end Rashan Gary will play.

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the matchup between the Spartans and Wolverines.

Can Michigan State score?

I think it’s THE question entering this game. MSU’s offense has struggled to move the chains consistently against lesser competition, including Central Michigan and Northwestern recently. Michigan is the nation’s second-ranked defense in yards allowed and college football’s best at defending the pass, giving up just 129 yards per game through the air. The Wolverines lead the Big Ten in points allowed (15.4) and interceptions (seven), three of which they’ve returned for touchdowns.

Beyond the numbers, it’s a defensive unit with big-time speed and one that seems to have learned to pounce when it smells blood. That’s something Penn State couldn’t do against the Spartans last week, letting them hang around until they found some confidence. For MSU, hanging around offensively against Michigan won’t be easy. The opportunities to put together drives and score are likely to be even less, the potential for game-altering offensive mistakes much greater. 

Who’s healthy for MSU

The Spartans left their injured players home last week and added at least one to the list when receiver Cam Chambers suffered a thumb injury at Penn State. MSU will have senior Felton Davis and sophomore Laress Nelson ready to go at wideout. Everyone else’s status is unclear. My hunch is that junior starter Darrell Stewart plays. If he’s close to 100 percent, that’s a big deal. It gives quarterback Brian Lewerke and MSU’s offense another bona fide weapon in the passing game next to Davis. Freshman receiver Jalen Nailor hasn’t played since the Indiana game, taking away a speedy weapon used primarily on jet sweeps and such. Starting running back LJ Scott was close to returning two weeks ago, Mark Dantonio said, and then didn’t travel to Penn State. There are injuries up front on the offensive line, too, though last week’s group did as well as any this season. On defense, Josiah Scott hasn’t played all year. It’s unlikely he returns against Michigan.

Stewart’s return is critical, especially if Chambers is limited, as it appears by the size of the wrap on his hand when he returned last week. If MSU has a healthy Stewart paired with Davis at receiver, that’s a duo that can cause any defense difficulties and gives the Spartans a prayer of getting up and down the field a couple times against the Wolverines. Without him, if it’s primarily Davis — and perhaps Nelson and Brandon Sowards — against the best pass defense in the country, it’s hard to picture MSU spending much time near the end zone.

Whether U-M’s Rashan Gary plays

Michigan’s preseason All-American defensive end has been out two weeks and dinged up for a couple more after suffering an AC joint shoulder injury. His status this week is unclear. If he plays and is effective, that’s a problem for MSU. The 6-foot-5, 283-pound projected first-round NFL draft pick would be a chore for MSU tackles Cole Chewins, Jordan Reid or whoever Gary lines up against. U-M’s Chase Winovich is already a bear to deal with on the opposite side. If Gary plays, MSU’s tackles won’t have been tested like this since last season’s game at Ohio State, which didn’t go well. MSU’s O-line held up OK last year in Ann Arbor, but rain and wind made that an odd evening and very little pass protection was required.

Shea’s decision-making and playmaking

I don’t remember a first-year transfer quarterback being known on a first-name basis quite like Shea Patterson. But, alas, folks know Shea much more than they know Patterson. More importantly, Michigan has found an offense with him — in part, it seems, by adjusting its complex pro-style offense to fit his game, with more run-pass options and spread concepts. Also, Patterson’s just playing good football, even if he’s only averaging 187 yards per game through the air.

Patterson has plenty of arm and foot talent. So does Penn State’s Trace McSorley. MSU did a terrific job of collapsing the pocket and taking away McSorley’s running lanes last week. If it can do the same to Patterson, it’ll force him into decisions he hasn’t had to make since Week 1 against Notre Dame. This is a legacy-making game for Patterson in a rivalry he’s never played in. The Spartans need to make him as uncomfortable as possible. 

The weather. Again.

We’re looking at a chilly and, likely, rainy day at Spartan Stadium, with temperatures in the 40s and a 50 percent chance of rain. It could be miserable for fans. The question is how it impacts the football game. Last year, the wind and downpour helped MSU in Ann Arbor, once the Spartans had the lead. This season, Michigan has a better quarterback, a running game that’s found its stride, a stronger defense and the lessons from previous years, including last year. MSU is banged up and knows its running game can’t be counted on for much, other than balance. Still, anything that makes scoring harder for both teams favors MSU, which, like last week, needs to hang around until it finds something that works.

Prediction

I know that recent history says this game will be close and that MSU will cover the point spread against Michigan — Las Vegas has the Spartans as 7-point underdogs. I just don’t see it. I think MSU is really going to struggle to score. These are two teams on different trajectories, even after MSU’s win at Penn State. Michigan appears to be beginning to roll. Its defense, which has been extremely gifted for a couple years, is starting to look nasty. Its offense is capable and competent. That’ll be enough in this one, with the Wolverines’ defense coming up with at least one game-altering play. 

Make it: Michigan 23, MSU 10

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Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.