News

USDA raises domestic ending stocks projections

The USDA increased its ending stocks estimates for U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat.

The rise in corn was because of higher ending stocks last marketing year, along with a lower feed use projection, but the USDA did increase its export estimate. For soybeans, last year’s higher carryover canceled out a slightly lower production guess, with no other changes to the balance sheet. The month to month increase in wheat was because of higher production, higher imports, and lower feed use.

The current marketing year runs through May 2019 for wheat and August 2019 for beans and corn.

The USDA’s next set of supply and demand estimates is out November 8th.

Breakdown of selected domestic supply and demand tables for the current marketing year:

2018/19 U.S. wheat ending stocks are seen at 956 million bushels, compared to 935 million in September and 1.099 billion at the end of 2017/18. With a slight reduction in beginning stocks, or 2017/18 ending stocks, a higher production estimate from the USDA’s most recent small grains summary, and an increase in exports, total supply is pegged at 3.123 billion bushels, compared to 3.112 billion a month ago. USDA lowered feed and residual use 10 million bushels to 110 million, leaving domestic use at 1.142 billion bushels and 2.167 billion, respectively. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $4.80 to $5.40 per bushel, compared to last month’s range of $4.70 to $5.50 and last marketing year’s average of $4.72.

2018/19 U.S. corn ending stocks are projected at 1.813 billion bushels, compared to 1.774 billion a month ago and 2.14 billion a year ago. The USDA increased beginning stocks, but lowered production slightly, taking the total supply to 16.968 billion bushels, compared to 16.879 billion in September. The feed and residual use guess was reduced 25 million bushels to 5.55 billion, putting domestic use at 12.680 billion bushels, while exports were raised 75 million bushels to 2.475 billion, for total use of 15.155 billion bushels. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $3 to $4 per bushel, unchanged from September. The initial average farm price for the recently completed 2017/18 marketing year is $3.36.

2018/19 U.S. soybean ending stocks are expected to be 885 million bushels, compared to 845 million last month and 438 million last marketing year. The USDA did raise beginning stocks in September, but lowered production slightly, putting the total supply at 5.153 billion bushels. There were no other changes to the balance sheet. The average 2018/19 farm price is estimated at $7.35 to $9.85 per bushel, steady with a month ago. The initial average farm price for the recently completed 2017/18 marketing year is $9.33.