Michigan State at Indiana: 5 factors and a prediction
Graham Couch
Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the matchup between the Spartans and Hoosiers.
1. Michigan State's play calling
If the Spartans are able to run the football at will against Indiana, even in predictable running situations, then nothing much has to change in MSU’s offensive game plan. There’s a small chance that happens. The Hoosiers’ defensive front is young and allowing 4.8 yards per carry. But MSU should be prepared otherwise. If the Spartans’ push, or lack thereof, is similar to their first two games, the approach in play calling can’t be the same. MSU’s offense has too many weapons elsewhere to be to be fruitlessly running into a wall on third-and-1 only to send out an injury-replacement punter to kick it away. Every down has to become a passing option down, utilizing quarterback Brian Lewerke and receivers Felton Davis, Darrell Stewart and Cody White. That’s the strength of the offense. Those are MSU’s best odds. The Spartans still need some measure of balance, even if it’s forced balance. It just can’t be predictable balance.
2. Red zone creativity
MSU has five touchdowns in 10 drives inside the 20-yard line, aka the red zone, this season. In the Big Ten, only Purdue has been less efficient at coming away with seven points. If the Spartans are to beat Indiana, they’ll likely need at least three of those red zone trips to result in touchdowns. This has been an across-the-board issue — Lewerke’s decisions, protection problems, inability to get a tough yard and, at times, predictable play calling. Ideally, teams don’t need much creativity in this area of the field. Overthinking it can result in lost yards and turnovers when what you want to do is muscle the ball over the goal line. But that’s not happening for MSU right now. And if it’s still not early Saturday, MSU has to be different than it has: Use Lewerke’s legs, or unconventional formations, or quick passes, or tempo. Something.
3. The shaken confidence of MSU’s offensive line
It’s clear that MSU’s offensive line is searching right now, its confidence shaken. “After the Arizona State game, it’s definitely knocked (our confidence) down,” center Matt Allen said this week. This group may never be the strength of this team, but for MSU to have a chance to reaching it goals this season, the offensive line has find some swagger. That starts with doing something really well — perhaps seeing Indiana’s defensive line moved off the line of scrimmage or keeping Lewerke safe for an entire game. Football is a ruthlessly honest sport, especially in the trenches. You can’t hide weakness there. This unit has to toughen up and get the job done.
4. Can Indiana run the football?
Hoosiers freshman Stevie Scott is averaging 5.6 yards per carry through three games, running behind a capable and veteran offensive line. Conversely, MSU’s defense is statistically the best in the Big Ten at shutting down the run, allowing 1.3 yards per attempt from Utah State and Arizona State. If the Hoosiers’ can’t run the ball and play with the balance they have during their 3-0 start, it’s unclear whether their offense has the goods to get it done with the passing game alone. This is a real test for both teams. If either team wins this battle decisively, it probably wins the game.
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5. Rocky Lombardi vs. J-Shun Harris
Losing punter Jake Hartbarger for a couple months to injury is going to bite the Spartans at some point. Perhaps it’ll be a slow drip in a given game, as MSU gives away field position. Or it might show up in a blur — someone like Indiana return man J-Shun Harris darting down the sideline. Harris returned a punt 86 yards for a touchdown last week against Ball State. It’s his third punt return for a touchdown in his career. Hartbarger was terrific last season at keeping the ball away from dynamic return men. He had become great at flipping the field when MSU needed it, as seen with his 74-yard punt at Arizona State. Enter Rocky Lombardi, MSU’s backup quarterback, a former part-time punter in high school, who says he’s kicked punts of 50 yards in practice. Can he kick to his coverage? Or away from Harris without shanking it out of bounds? It’s a tough ask. But in a game that might be decided by less than a touchdown, his punting performance is critical.
Prediction
This is a season-altering game for Michigan State’s football team. The Spartans know it. There’s a lot to prove — to themselves, mostly — and a ton a stake. They’re up against a team that’s playing well and is one win from one of the more difficult feats in sports: Creating a buzz around Indiana football. On the ground, this game is strength against strength (the Hoosiers’ run game against MSU’s run defense) and weakness against weakness (MSU’s run game against IU’s inexperienced defensive front). If MSU’s strength doesn’t win out, the Spartans won’t win. I think it will. And, for the first time all season, that’ll force Indiana to do something different. That’ll be enough. Barely. Don’t bet this one.
Make it: MSU 27, Indiana 23
Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.