Michigan State at Arizona State: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Sun Devils.

1. MSU’s offensive push against the Sun Devils’ fledgling defensive front

Arizona State writer Doug Haller said something I didn’t expect about where he thought MSU would have an advantage: “I would be surprised if Michigan State didn’t just run the ball right at them. … That’s going to be a problem for Arizona State,” he said. After last week, I’m not convinced it’ll be such a problem for the Sun Devils, who allowed 2 yards rushing to Texas-San Antonio. True, it is a front seven without a ton of starting experience, with freshmen at two of the linebacker spots (in a 3-4 defense) and sophomores in the secondary. But if the power run game winds up being the Spartans’ greatest advantage, they might not have much of an advantage at all. Last week’s push by MSU’s offensive line was uninspiring and should be concerning. If that group finds its way this week — and does push around ASU — the Spartans’ offense could blow this open. Brian Lewerke and his receivers might be an overwhelming force if MSU also has the Sun Devils on their heals at the line of scrimmage. That’s a big “if”.

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2. Protecting Brian Lewerke

I don’t care if Arizona State played Pewamo-Westphalia last week, nine sacks in one game is eye-opening. MSU was shaky protecting quarterback Brian Lewerke in Week 1, worse than most of last season. It wasn’t all on the offensive line. There were several nonexistent blitz protections that left Lewerke either on the ground or spinning out of trouble. Maybe Texas-San Antonio is a bad barometer. And perhaps Utah State will lead the nation in sacks. Doesn’t matter. MSU has to be better at protecting the franchise, especially if it’s going to struggle to run the football.

3. Brian Lewerke

Lewerke is a seasoned player, who ought to be able to handle an emotional game in his backyard in front of family and friends who’ve never seen him play college football in person. But he’s human. I remember MSU’s Denzel Valentine and Iowa’s Anthony Clemmons, teammates at Lansing Sexton High School, putting together the worst two performances I’ve ever seen on a basketball court when they met for the first time in college, trying to show off to their shared inner-circles and each other. We’ve seen emotional games work for athletes for the better, too — Brett Favre’s night in Oakland right after his father’s death is one of the great efforts you’ll ever witness. MSU needs Lewerke to be himself. If he’s fired up, fine. But he’s got to manage the game first. The playmaking will come. That’s who he is. If he forces it, who knows.

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4. N’Keal Harry vs. Justin Layne

This is the sort of game that could vault MSU junior cornerback Justin Layne up NFL draft boards. Arizona State junior N’Keal Harry is a big, strong target and elusive runner after the catch, a likely first-round draft pick (Draft guru Mel Kiper has Harry as the 21st-best prospect in next spring’s draft.). What makes Layne so appealing himself as an NFL prospect is that he’s a 6-foot-3 cornerback, with the wiggle of a 5-10 corner. He’s the ideal counter to someone like Harry, whose type isn’t so rare at the next level. This is an opportunity for Layne. And if he shows he’s up for it, MSU will be limiting the Sun Devils’ best weapon. Keep your eye on this pairing.

5. The uninhabitable climate

I don’t understand why anyone would live in Phoenix. It’s after Labor Day and the 100-degree temperatures for an evening kickoff are nothing out of the ordinary. Go tell someone else that it's only dry heat. Dry heat is just as relentless, even if less sticky. We’ll see if it impacts the game and how much it bothers MSU’s players. If cramping becomes an issue, the timing of it could be critical. There are certain players MSU needs on the field. I’ve got to imagine for receivers and defensive backs, especially, this won’t be much fun.

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Prediction

Before last week, I thought Michigan State might roll through the Sun Devils. But every factor since has made me think twice. Perhaps I’m overanalyzing — check that, I know I’m overanalyzing — but Arizona State looked impressive last week and MSU didn’t. This Arizona State team reminds me a little of the 1995 Spartans, Nick Saban’s first group, in that it has NFL playmakers, but is flawed in critical places. Those are dangerous teams. MSU’s history Out West is abysmal. The Big Ten’s history at Arizona State just as bad. I still like the Spartans to win. They’re the more seasoned club and showed poise at key positions late last week. Just don’t bet on it.

Make it: MSU 33, Arizona State 27

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.