GREEN & WHITE BASKETBALL

Michigan State vs. Oakland tipoff: Analysis, prediction

Graham Couch
Lansing State Journal
Oakland senior Jalen Hayes, a Lansing Sexton graduate, is averaging better than 19 points per game for the Golden Grizzlies.

•What: Michigan State vs. Oakland

•When: 2:30 p.m. Saturday

•Where: Little Caesars Arena, Detroit

•TV/Radio: ESPNU / Spartan Sports Network, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM, and Sirius 119 and XM 196

•Records/Rankings: MSU is 9-1 and 2-0 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 2 in both major polls; Oakland is 6-4, 0-0 in the Horizon League and unranked.

•Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 553-221 in his 23rd season, all with the Spartans. Oakland — Greg Kampe is 585-428 in his 34th season, all with the Golden Grizzlies.

•Series: MSU leads 15-0 all-time, with all 15 meetings taking place since 1997.

MSU

Pos.

Name

PPG

C (44)

Nick Ward (6-8)

13.7

F (2)

Jaren Jackson Jr. (6-11)

10.8

G (22)

Miles Bridges (6-7)

15.6

G (1)

Joshua Langford (6-5)

12.9

G (5)

Cassius Winston (6-0)

12.7

Oakland

Pos.

Name

PPG

C (10)

Isaiah Brock (6-8)

5.0

F (22)

Jalen Hayes (6-7)

19.3

G (35)

Martez Walker (6-6)

21.2

G (2)

Nick Daniels (6-1)

9.2

G (11)

Brailen Neely (5-9)

4.0

MSU update: The Spartans continue to lead the nation in field-goal percentage defense, holding opponents to 33.1 percent shooting. That salty percentage is helped by averaging a national-best 8.3 blocks per game, including 36 combined in the last three games. MSU’s heralded four-member sophomore class is averaging 53.3 points, 18.4 rebounds and 10.5 assists per game. The Spartans have won seven of their last eight games by 18 points or more. This is MSU’s first game in the city of Detroit since the 2009 Final Four at Ford Field. Previous games against Oakland have been at the Palace of Auburn Hills, including two years go, when the Spartans won in overtime.

Oakland update: This might be Greg Kampe’ s most talented team at Oakland. It’s a shame you won’t see it at full strength against MSU. Illinois transfer Kendrick Nunn, who’s averaging nearly 22 points per game despite playing through an ankle injury, won’t play Saturday against the Spartans. The Golden Grizzlies can't catch a break this season. After losing Jalen Hayes (Lansing Sexton) early on to a bizarre academic four-game suspension, Oakland has won six of eight games heading into its date with MSU. Now one-third of its prolific trio — Hayes, Nunn and Martez Walker — is out again. When healthy, with the rim protection of Isaiah Brock behind those three, Oakland is likely the class of the Horizon League. Perhaps it will be again before the conference tournament. The Golden Grizzlies also hindered by a leg injury to talented freshman forward James Beck — who Drew Valentine (now an assistant at Loyola-Chicago) recruited to Oakland. Beck had started five games, two alongside Hayes and Brock. Williamston’s Tom Cotter is also on the roster. Cotter is a reserve big man who’s played in five games this season. With the injuries and MSU’s size, Cotter is expected to see time Saturday.

MORE:  An inside look at how teams scout, view Michigan State's basketball team

MORE:  Michigan State takes hot-shooting Cassius Winston home to Detroit vs. Oakland

About the matchup: MSU hasn’t faced a backcourt tandem with as much firepower as Walker and Nunn since it played Duke. Minus Nunn, Oakland is a lot less scary on the perimeter. Nick Daniels, Nunn’s replacement, is a capable shooter, but nowhere near the high-major scorer Nunn is. The Walker-Miles Bridges matchup should be interesting to watch. Bridges likes challenges like this. He’s got a doozy. Same for Walker, though, who at 6-foot-6 and 185 pounds, will be outweighed by Bridges by 35 or 40 pounds. Without Nunn on the court, MSU has options for how it wants to defend Walker, a Texas transfer who played his high school basketball at Detroit Pershing. The problem for Oakland, beyond just Nunn's injury, is the matchups. Mostly that Jalen Hayes, who the Grizzlies rely on in the post, will be guarded by a four-inches-taller version of himself in Jaren Jackson Jr. The way to win a matchup against Jackson is with a tall stretch-shooting forward or a bulky 4-man who can outmuscle him. Jackson looks like the worst possible matchup for Hayes, who would be a quality forward in the Big Ten. Another issue for Oakland, the Grizzlies love to push the pace, even when it doesn’t serve them well. Two years ago, their unwillingness to slow the tempo contributed to blowing a big lead against MSU. This MSU team will be happy to run with them.

FROM 2016:  Couch: Against MSU, Lansing's Jalen Hayes proves himself but misses opportunity

FROM 2014:  Couch: Oakland basketball built by Lansing pipeline

Prediction: This game means more to Oakland than it does to MSU. Unfortunately for Oakland, not by that much. This is a chance for Cassius Winston to play at home in Detroit, for the Spartans to play in an NBA arena, and against a roster MSU’s players know and respect from previous meetings and summer league games in the Moneyball Pro-Am in Lansing. With a healthy Nunn, this game had an outside chance at being interesting late. Instead, you’ll be able to catch kickoff of the Lions game nearby without missing anything at Little Caesars Arena.

» Make it: MSU 91, Oakland, 67

— Graham Couch