Couch: Don't book your flight, playoff rankings may again throw wrench in MSU's bowl plans

Saturday night’s conference championship games provided only a small dose of clarity as to the makeup of the College Football Playoff and every bowl game patiently waiting beneath it.

But even if you think you have it figured out (and if you do, shoot me an email), I’d urge caution on purchasing plane tickets. I remind you of 2014, when the selection committee inexplicably changed its mind about the order of Michigan State and Mississippi State, which sent the Spartans to the Cotton Bowl in Dallas and the Bulldogs to the Orange Bowl in Miami — and put this columnist on the phone with American Airlines, begging them to refund airfare for three.

And thus, all of the Lansing State Journal long-distance travel in 2015 was brought to you by American Airlines travel vouchers.

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What happened in those final rankings three years ago was a reminder of the human element of this selection committee. And how the committee's feelings about the resumes of Alabama and Penn State last week, for example, might change with Sunday’s final rankings — even with neither team playing this week and very little new data to add to the resume of either team.

On the Tuesday after Michigan State and Mississippi State each played their final games of the 2014 season, the committee ranked the Spartans No. 7 and the Bulldogs No. 10. Neither team had anything to do with a conference championship game. Ohio State, which earlier in November had beaten Michigan State, won the Big Ten title game. Alabama, which knocked off Mississippi State around the same time, won the SEC championship. In other words, there was nothing new to absorb about either of the MSU teams between the rankings after the regular season and the final rankings.

So, naturally, when the committee looked at these teams a final time, they ranked Mississippi State No. 7 and Michigan State No. 8. No one saw it coming. Michigan State’s administrative brass and football program had its entire itinerary already planned for Miami.

Here is the explanation I received a few days later via email from then-committee chair Jeff Long:

“Once the season was complete and the Committee had every team's full body of work, we began our process with a clean sheet of paper,” Long wrote. “There were many factors that went into voting Michigan State and Mississippi State into their final positions. There was one significant difference between the two teams in terms of quality wins. Mississippi State had two top 25 wins while Michigan State's resume did not contain a top 25 victory.”

Great point. But the same point could have been made a week earlier, when Michigan State was No. 7 and Mississippi State was 10. Long offered no further explanation.

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I surmised then that the committee reacted emotionally to Mississippi State's season-ending loss to Ole Miss in contrast to the Spartans’ strong showing the same weekend at Penn State. And then, five days later, reassessed. 

The committee could easily change its mind once more this year. And, like then, the Orange Bowl is again the game most likely to mess with Michigan State’s travel plans — which otherwise likely and reportedly include an invitation to the Citrus Bowl in Orlando to play LSU on Jan. 1. If the Orange Bowl includes a Big Ten team, the Citrus Bowl won’t. The Orange Bowl will pair an ACC team against the top-ranked non-playoff team from the Big Ten, SEC or Notre Dame, with this caveat: The Big Ten champion can’t be selected to the Orange Bowl.

So Ohio State, regardless of whether or not the Buckeyes are in the playoff, won’t be in Miami. The only way the Orange Bowl goes to the Big Ten is if Wisconsin is that highest-ranked non-champion of the Big Ten or SEC. For that to happen, Alabama would have to get in the four-team playoff ahead of Ohio State and Wisconsin would have to land ahead of the next SEC team, Auburn, which was ranked two spots ahead of the Badgers (2 and 4, respectively) by the playoff selection committee heading into the weekend, before losing Saturday in the SEC championship to Georgia. Auburn being ahead of Wisconsin previously may or may not mean anything in the final rankings.

That situation alone brings uncertainty. But what if the selection committee suddenly decides Penn State, idle this week and ranked No. 9 last week, no longer should be ahead of No. 10 USC, No. 11 TCU and No. 15 Notre Dame, or some variation of three teams behind them. Then, with one New Year’s Six bowl going to the best of the non-power-five conference champions, the Nittany Lions could slide out of the New Year’s Six games entirely and into play for the Citrus Bowl. That would probably send MSU someplace else, even with the head-to-head win over the Nittany Lions.

Think it’s not possible? Look at Penn State’s resume next to Notre Dame’s closely. The Irish have three wins over top 25 teams, including a blowout of Pac-12 champion USC. The Nittany Lions have one top 25 win, over Northwestern.

Remember Long’s quote about these final rankings from three years ago:

- Clean sheet

- Full body of work

- One significant difference - the number of top 25 wins

Notre Dame’s fall in the rankings, like that of Mississippi State in November 2014, coincides with late-season losses. But if you take a step back and look at the whole season, the 9-3 Irish have a resume that stands up pretty well next to 10-2 Penn State.

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There are different people in the selection committee room now. But they're humans nonetheless. And, after the four teams are chosen for the playoff, there is little attention or accountability. Three years ago, during a lengthy live interview with Long, no one on ESPN’s set bothered to ask about the bizarre flip of Michigan State and Mississippi State.

If there are other political factors at work, if the committee wants to correct itself from previous rankings, beyond the playoff, there will be no outcry that anyone cares to hear.

So MSU, like everyone else, must wait. Unlike most everyone else, the Spartans know how unpredictable Sunday can be.

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.