Graham Couch's weekly AP college basketball ballot and top 25 analysis

Graham Couch
Lansing State Journal
Texas A&M's road win at USC Sunday night is one of the better wins early in this college basketball season – because it happened where many teams won't go: on the road.

Each week during the last two college basketball seasons, one fan base or another has been upset with my Associated Press Poll ballot or thrilled that they think I’m championing their team’s cause more than other voters.

My ballot is regularly dubbed the “most extreme.” I don’t find it extreme at all. I’m simply evaluating the entire resume of teams each week — paying little attention to where I ranked them last week and no attention to where others have them or the actual collective rankings.

MORE:  Couch from 2015: AP basketball voters not 'extreme' enough

Road wins, quality wins, recent play, strength of schedule, intent in scheduling, the ever-flawed eye test — all are factors in my ballot. Brand, as much as I can avoid biases, is not. Home wins mean little. Home wins over lower-major competition mean nothing. This is how I judge college basketball. My sense is that some other ballots are done in less time and with less willingness to challenge previous assumptions. 

If the human element and individual analysis were really at work here, the Coaches Poll and AP Poll wouldn’t so often be in lock step. They never should be. Not beyond the top 10, at least. There are too many similar teams in the rankings for voters coming from too many different parts of the country to agree 1 through 25. Groupthink, done in haste, too often prevails. Perhaps folks fear being featured in Gary Parrish's "Poll Attacks" on cbssports.com. Parrish, though, doesn't attack with malice. Nor does he come after any voter with logical conclusions. 

All of our ballots are easily seen at collegepolltracker.com, so there is no hiding. For the last two years, I’ve often spent Monday afternoons engaged in civil Twitter banter with fans of Kansas or Maryland or Miami (I actually screwed that one up). I usually enjoy it, but it's repetitive. This year, I’ll just ship them the link to my weekly explanation — that’s what this is — which usually won’t have this painfully long intro.

Not surprisingly, this week I was again the “most extreme” voter, meaning I had the most teams on my ballot that were five or more spots — up or down — different from the actual collective poll. Here’s my ballot, with asterisks next to my “extreme” picks:

1. Duke (8-0)
2. Michigan State (5-1)
3. Texas A&M (6-0) *
4. Kansas (5-0)
5. Notre Dame (6-0)
6. Florida (5-1)
7. Wichita State (4-1)
8. Minnesota (7-0)
9. Villanova (6-0) *
10. Gonzaga (5-1) *
11. North Carolina (5-1) 
12. Texas (4-2) *
13. Virginia (6-0) *
14. Nevada (6-0) *
15. Kentucky (6-1) *
16. USC (4-1)
17. Texas Tech (6-0) *
18. Cincinnati (6-0) *
19. Arizona State (6-0)
20. Miami (5-0) *
21. Providence (5-1) *
22. Xavier (5-1) 
23. TCU (6-0)
24. Rhode Island (3-2) *
25. Seton Hall (5-1)

Here are the teams and situations on my ballot that I think deserve explanation:

- Texas A&M at No. 3, ahead of Kansas: The Aggies have everything you want in an early season resume — an eye-opening neutral-site win over West Virginia, two more solid neutral-site wins over Oklahoma State and Penn State and, then, Sunday night, a decisive 16-point win on the road at USC, which I previously had ranked No. 10. Nobody has done more to throw themselves onto the radar. Very few top teams have challenged themselves with a true road game yet. 

Texas A&M has done more to this point than Kansas, who I have at No. 4. You don’t get to hold your position simply by not losing. The Jayhawks haven’t played anyone of note since beating a young Kentucky team at the Champions Classic. They perhaps don’t deserve to be No. 4 ahead of Notre Dame, either. In Kansas’ favor: five high-major non-conference opponents over the next month, two of them on the road, means the Jayhawks aren’t dodging anyone. 

- Two-loss Texas at No. 12, ahead of Virginia (13) and Kentucky (15): The Longhorns have been really good. Their two losses — by seven points to No. 1 Duke and by five to Gonzaga, which I have at No. 10, both at the PK80 — are better results than several ranked teams’ best wins. Virginia hadn’t played Wisconsin Monday night at the time of these rankings. That’s a home win against a mediocre Badgers club, but it probably would have put the Cavaliers ahead of Texas. 

Virginia has some good wins — a true roadie at VCU (props for being willing to play that, too), a blowout of a struggling Vanderbilt team and a convincing neutral-site win over a Rhode Island club I have at No. 24 (and think will be very good when completely healthy). It was splitting hairs with Texas and Virginia. I liked what I saw from the Longhorns in Portland. I haven’t seen much of Virginia yet. That sometimes happens in deciding votes. Fair? Not entirely. 

I think Kentucky fans know their team is an unproven work in progress. I haven’t heard a peep from Big Blue Nation about having the Wildcats eight spots lower than their actual ranking. Kentucky battled against Kansas in the Champions Classic but has otherwise struggled against lower-major competition. Moreover, the Wildcats haven’t played anyone yet. They pulled out of the PK80 and instead played Troy, Fort Wayne and Illinois-Chicago last week, all at home of course.

- Nevada at No. 14: The 6-0 Wolf Pack have challenged themselves like a mid-major program trying to build an NCAA tournament at-large resume. They’ve played three of their first six games on the road, beating Santa Clara, Pacific and Hawaii each by at least 13 points in their own buildings. They also have home wins over Rhode Island (who, again, I have on the fringes of the top 25) and Davidson. I don’t think Kentucky would be 6-1 if it had played three road games against mid-major foes, given how much the Wildcats have floundered in winning at home. Kudos to Nevada for traveling. Road wins are four or five times more impressive than home wins in college basketball.

- Texas Tech at No. 17: The Red Raiders have played an OK schedule, nothing spectacular, beating Northwestern and Boston College handily on a neutral court. It’s that dismantling of Northwestern that sticks with me. Again, sometimes early on, when there isn't a ton to evaluate, it’s who you’ve seen and what you saw when you saw them. Texas Tech has Seton Hall (25) and Nevada (14) in the next eight days. I’ll know by then whether I’m overvaluing the Red Raiders. 

- Louisville and Baylor unranked: Louisville has played four games, all at home, all against mid-majors, coming off a preseason scandal that cost the program its head coach. Forgive me if I’m waiting for the Cardinals to prove themselves. They go to Purdue tonight as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Purdue fell out of the rankings this week, but it’s still a talented and capable Boilermakers’ squad and a difficult environment. 

Baylor has two semi-convincing home wins over Wisconsin and Creighton on their resume. Nothing else. They go to Xavier (22) next and then host Wichita State (7). This will correct itself if it should.

Here’s this week’s actual AP Poll, if you prefer rankings based on less sophisticated analysis:

1. Duke (65) 
2. Kansas 
3. Michigan State 
4. Villanova 
5. Notre Dame 
6. Florida 
7. Kentucky 
8. Wichita State
9. Texas A&M 
10. Miami
11. Cincinnati
12. Minnesota
13. North Carolina
14. Southern Cal 
15. Gonzaga
16. Baylor
17. Louisville
18. Virginia 
19. West Virginia
20. Arizona St.
21. Xavier 
22. Texas Tech
23. TCU
24. Alabama
25. Creighton 

Contact Graham Couch at gcouch@lsj.com. Follow him on Twitter @Graham_Couch.