Michigan State vs. Indiana: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down Michigan State’s upcoming matchup with Indiana.

1. Is what we saw from MSU’s offensive line at Minnesota real?

For the first time all season, Michigan State won the push up front last week at Minnesota. Running backs LJ Scott and Madre London found tons of room on numerous toss sweeps and were able to turn upfield. That didn’t even happen against Bowling Green. The question is, is this improvement real? Or did it have more to do with whatever the Spartans saw on film with the Gophers that made them think they could run 15 toss sweeps and have success?

The argument that it’s real is twofold: Minnesota’s run defense had been among its strengths to that point; and the Spartans were actually pretty good up front a week earlier at Michigan. It only showed so much in Ann Arbor because of the Wolverines’ staunch defense and weather which limited creativity in the second half. We’ll find out a lot about where this group actually is against Indiana. The Hoosiers are a better defense than their brand reputation. They’re the only team to have already played Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan, which skews their stats against the run. This is a formidable defense at the point of attack. 

2. Jake Hartbarger vs. J-Shun Harris

For most of the first month, MSU punter Jake Hartbarger was having an All-American type of season. He hasn’t been as consistent in October, though I’m not sure any punter would do well sending a football into the sky in the elements the Spartans have played in recently. The last time MSU faced a return man of notable caliber, Hartbarger was brilliant. He never gave Western Michigan’s Darius Phillips any shot at a return. MSU could use another pinpoint performance from Hartbarger against the Hoosiers. Indiana’s J-Shun Harris has twice returned punts for touchdowns this season and, not surprisingly, is in the top three in college football, averaging 22.5 yards per return. 

3. Peyton Ramsey, Simmie Cobbs and Co. vs. MSU’s defense

Indiana redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey has the makings of a big-time quarterback in the Big Ten. He’s mobile, but a pass-first QB — in that regard, in the mold of MSU’s Brian Lewerke. This will be his third start taking over for senior Richard Lagow. Indiana’s offense, which values tempo over time of possession, has given good MSU defenses fits. This looks like it qualifies as a good MSU defense, but it hasn’t been tested like this in the passing game. Ramsey might be just beginning to figure it all out, but he has talented weapons to work with, including 6-foot-4 junior Simmie Cobbs, who has 37 catches this season.

The Spartans are again building a rep as a disruptive and sound defense, justifiably so, since they’re 263 yards allowed per game is fifth-best in college football. The schedule, though, has helped the Spartans with this confidence and these favorable numbers. They’re yet to face a prolific passing game. I’m not sure Indiana is that, either, but it’s different than anything they’ve been up against yet.

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4. Can Brian Lewerke finally let it fly?

It’s been hard to measure the progress of MSU sophomore quarterback Brian Lewerke lately. Mother Nature has played as much defense as any of the Spartans’ opponents. It’s supposed to be dry at kickoff, with manageable wind. This should be a good gauge of Lewerke and this Spartan passing attack. Given the liveliness of Lewerke’s arm and proven playmaking ability of MSU’s wideouts, at some point, he’s going to have a big day. Maybe this is it. Indiana has only intercepted one pass all season — that’s tied for the fewest picks in college football — though the Hoosiers’ overall pass defense and pass rush are much more solid statistically.

5. Keeping the Hoosiers’ turnover margin right where it is

Almost no team in college football turns the ball over more and takes it away less than Indiana. Beyond the Hoosiers’ brutal schedule, that’s the reason for their 3-3 start. Indiana has turned it over 13 times and only gotten four turnovers for itself. For perspective, that’s last in the Big Ten and 124th out of 129 teams at the FBS level of college football. MSU has coughed it up 11 times itself, but also has 11 takeaways. Physically, Indiana is on par with Michigan State. It’s mistakes that kill the Hoosiers more often than not. The Spartans would like to keep it that way.

Prediction

If Michigan State is going to be a factor in the Big Ten East Division, it has to beat the Hoosiers at home. Losing on homecoming to an Indiana team that’s considerably better than many in the stands will realize would extinguish the buzz surrounding this Spartan football team. Moreover, it would ruin MSU’s chance to enter November games against Penn State and Ohio State with just as much to play for as the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes. Indiana played Ohio State tough for three quarters in its opener and took Michigan to overtime last week. This should be a legitimate test of MSU in several areas, including the scoreboard.

Make it: MSU 30, Indiana 24