MSU at Minnesota: 5 factors and a prediction

Lansing State Journal columnist Graham Couch breaks down the Spartans' matchup with the Gophers this Saturday night in Minneapolis.

1. Is there another level for the Spartans?

Michigan State is in a terrific spot — 4-1 overall, 2-0 in the Big Ten, having just beaten Iowa and Michigan. The Spartans have played increasingly better football each of the last couple weeks, nearly across the board. They’re not a great team yet, though. That’s OK. They weren't supposed to be. That level might not happen this season. But it’s something to aspire to. What gives this team a shot to be a Big Ten contender ahead of schedule, and to compete with Penn State and Ohio State next month, is the week-to-week improvement we're seeing. MSU has to keep its hunger, keep its chip, keep the hurt from a 3-9 season, even as it begins to be favored in games, as it is this week at Minnesota. 

2. Keeping Brian Lewerke upright and healthy

Nothing would send this promising MSU football season south faster than an injury to its sophomore quarterback. He makes this thing go. His teammates feel like they have a chance in any game on their schedule with him in the huddle and under center. Lewerke is a two-dimensional quarterback with big-time ability in both his legs and right arm. MSU needs to be careful with one of those dimensions. Lewerke’s fast feet are part of his effectiveness. So are his brain and ribs and hands. He took a beating at Michigan last week. It was well worth it. But there has to be a balance. A Lewerke injury, right now, might be the difference between 9-3 and 6-6.

3. Force Minnesota to throw the ball

The Gophers are a limited offense, with a passing game that strikes fear into no one. Minnesota is averaging less than 170 yards through the air per game. In the Big Ten, only Maryland, on its 15th healthy quarterback, and Rutgers are worse. The Gophers are expected to ride senior QB Connor Rhoda again this week. If the ball is in his hands, looking to throw, the Spartans are in good shape. The Gophers have two talented running backs in Rodney Smith and Shannon Brooks, running behind an iffy offensive line (a unit that strangely has given up just one sack this season). That’s where Minnesota wants to be offensively — giving the ball to Smith and Brooks and grinding out drives. This is not a come-from-behind team. 

RELATED:

• How is MSU's defense so improved? No easy answer
• MSU-Minnesota scouting report
• Couch: If MSU wants to be a Big Ten contender, it begins at Minnesota

4. Will MSU score 20 points?

The Spartans haven’t scored more than 18 points against a high-major opponent this season. And they put up a modest 28 points against a solid Western Michigan team. The only time MSU has crossed the 30-point barrier was in the opener against Bowling Green (a 35-10 win). That Bowling Green team later gave up 35 points to South Dakota, 49 to Northwestern and 34 to Akron — putting MSU’s offensive performance in perspective. With how MSU’s defense is playing, the Spartans probably don’t need 30 points to beat the Gophers. But they might need 20. If this offense doesn’t get there this week (weather permitting), there’s an issue.

5. The weather

At least the Spartans have practice in the rain. The forecast calls for the possibility of another wet and windy night, though the rain is supposed to move out by the evening kickoff, and the gusts look like they’ll be more manageable than last week in Ann Arbor. In other words, not as much overall misery. MSU has to be ready for a another grind-it-out, value-the-football effort. Because, for all the analysis here and anywhere, all that really matters is the Spartans come back to East Lansing 5-1.

Prediction

Minnesota is banged up defensively and limited offensively, coming off heartbreaking losses to Maryland and Purdue. MSU has none of those issues. This feels like a game the Spartans could win comfortably. It’s rarely that easy on the road, especially at night. It’s just hard to picture the Gophers having the offensive juice to pull this out, unless the Spartans turn the ball over. Make it: MSU 24, Minnesota 16